Advances in the Early Warning of Shellfish Toxification by Dinophysis acuminata

In Western Europe, the incidence of DST is likely the highest globally, posing a significant threat with prolonged bans on shellfish harvesting, mainly caused by species of the dinoflagellate genus Dinophysis. Using a time series from 2014 to 2020, our study aimed (i) to determine the concentration...

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Vydáno v:	Toxins Ročník 16; číslo 5; s. 204
Hlavní autoři:	Duarte Silva, Alexandra, Rodrigues, Susana Margarida, Godinho, Lia
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Switzerland MDPI AG 24.04.2024
Témata:	Algorithms Animals Aquaculture Bans Coasts Consumption diarrhetic shellfish toxins Dinoflagellates Dinoflagellida Dinophysis Empirical analysis Environmental Monitoring - methods Food Contamination - analysis generalized additive models Laboratories Marine Toxins - analysis Marine Toxins - toxicity Mollusks okadaic acid Plankton Portugal Public health Seafood Shellfish Shellfish Poisoning - prevention & control Thresholds time series Toxicity Toxins Tweedie distribution Water quality Portugal diarrhetic shellfish toxins food safety Tweedie distribution generalized additive models early warning time series Dinophysis HABs monitoring okadaic acid
ISSN:	2072-6651, 2072-6651
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Abstract	In Western Europe, the incidence of DST is likely the highest globally, posing a significant threat with prolonged bans on shellfish harvesting, mainly caused by species of the dinoflagellate genus Dinophysis. Using a time series from 2014 to 2020, our study aimed (i) to determine the concentration of D. acuminata in water at which shellfish toxin levels could surpass the regulatory limit (160 µg OA equiv kg−1) and (ii) to assess the predictability of toxic events for timely mitigation actions, especially concerning potential harvesting bans. The analysis considered factors such as (i) overdispersion in the data, (ii) distinct periods of presence and absence, (iii) the persistence of cells, and (iv) the temporal lag between cells in the water and toxins in shellfish. Four generalized additive models were tested, with the Tweedie (TW-GAM) model showing superior performance (>85%) and lower complexity. The results suggest existing thresholds currently employed (200 and 500 cells L−1) are well-suited for the Portuguese coast, supported by empirical evidence (54–79% accuracy). The developed algorithm allows for thresholds to be tailored on a case-by-case basis, offering flexibility for regional variations.
AbstractList	In Western Europe, the incidence of DST is likely the highest globally, posing a significant threat with prolonged bans on shellfish harvesting, mainly caused by species of the dinoflagellate genus Dinophysis. Using a time series from 2014 to 2020, our study aimed (i) to determine the concentration of D. acuminata in water at which shellfish toxin levels could surpass the regulatory limit (160 µg OA equiv kg−1) and (ii) to assess the predictability of toxic events for timely mitigation actions, especially concerning potential harvesting bans. The analysis considered factors such as (i) overdispersion in the data, (ii) distinct periods of presence and absence, (iii) the persistence of cells, and (iv) the temporal lag between cells in the water and toxins in shellfish. Four generalized additive models were tested, with the Tweedie (TW-GAM) model showing superior performance (>85%) and lower complexity. The results suggest existing thresholds currently employed (200 and 500 cells L−1) are well-suited for the Portuguese coast, supported by empirical evidence (54–79% accuracy). The developed algorithm allows for thresholds to be tailored on a case-by-case basis, offering flexibility for regional variations. In Western Europe, the incidence of DST is likely the highest globally, posing a significant threat with prolonged bans on shellfish harvesting, mainly caused by species of the dinoflagellate genus Dinophysis. Using a time series from 2014 to 2020, our study aimed (i) to determine the concentration of D. acuminata in water at which shellfish toxin levels could surpass the regulatory limit (160 µg OA equiv kg-1) and (ii) to assess the predictability of toxic events for timely mitigation actions, especially concerning potential harvesting bans. The analysis considered factors such as (i) overdispersion in the data, (ii) distinct periods of presence and absence, (iii) the persistence of cells, and (iv) the temporal lag between cells in the water and toxins in shellfish. Four generalized additive models were tested, with the Tweedie (TW-GAM) model showing superior performance (>85%) and lower complexity. The results suggest existing thresholds currently employed (200 and 500 cells L-1) are well-suited for the Portuguese coast, supported by empirical evidence (54-79% accuracy). The developed algorithm allows for thresholds to be tailored on a case-by-case basis, offering flexibility for regional variations.In Western Europe, the incidence of DST is likely the highest globally, posing a significant threat with prolonged bans on shellfish harvesting, mainly caused by species of the dinoflagellate genus Dinophysis. Using a time series from 2014 to 2020, our study aimed (i) to determine the concentration of D. acuminata in water at which shellfish toxin levels could surpass the regulatory limit (160 µg OA equiv kg-1) and (ii) to assess the predictability of toxic events for timely mitigation actions, especially concerning potential harvesting bans. The analysis considered factors such as (i) overdispersion in the data, (ii) distinct periods of presence and absence, (iii) the persistence of cells, and (iv) the temporal lag between cells in the water and toxins in shellfish. Four generalized additive models were tested, with the Tweedie (TW-GAM) model showing superior performance (>85%) and lower complexity. The results suggest existing thresholds currently employed (200 and 500 cells L-1) are well-suited for the Portuguese coast, supported by empirical evidence (54-79% accuracy). The developed algorithm allows for thresholds to be tailored on a case-by-case basis, offering flexibility for regional variations. In Western Europe, the incidence of DST is likely the highest globally, posing a significant threat with prolonged bans on shellfish harvesting, mainly caused by species of the dinoflagellate genus . Using a time series from 2014 to 2020, our study aimed (i) to determine the concentration of in water at which shellfish toxin levels could surpass the regulatory limit (160 µg OA equiv kg ) and (ii) to assess the predictability of toxic events for timely mitigation actions, especially concerning potential harvesting bans. The analysis considered factors such as (i) overdispersion in the data, (ii) distinct periods of presence and absence, (iii) the persistence of cells, and (iv) the temporal lag between cells in the water and toxins in shellfish. Four generalized additive models were tested, with the Tweedie (TW-GAM) model showing superior performance (>85%) and lower complexity. The results suggest existing thresholds currently employed (200 and 500 cells L ) are well-suited for the Portuguese coast, supported by empirical evidence (54-79% accuracy). The developed algorithm allows for thresholds to be tailored on a case-by-case basis, offering flexibility for regional variations.
Author	Duarte Silva, Alexandra Rodrigues, Susana Margarida Godinho, Lia
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Cites_doi	10.1016/S0041-0101(00)00079-9 10.1016/S0041-0101(98)00247-5 10.3390/toxins11040189 10.1007/s10811-005-7907-z 10.1038/s43247-021-00178-8 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.12.013 10.1016/j.hal.2019.101662 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2011.10.015 10.3390/toxins10110453 10.1080/10402381.2012.754808 10.1175/2007JPO3750.1 10.1016/j.hal.2022.102254 10.1007/s11356-020-10389-9 10.3390/md12010394 10.1111/jpy.12966 10.3354/cr00742 10.3390/toxins15020091 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2011.09.011 10.1016/j.hal.2008.04.007 10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.05.044 10.1016/j.hal.2007.08.001 10.3390/toxins7041206 10.1016/S0041-0101(02)00095-8 10.3390/toxins13020168 10.1016/j.hal.2015.11.017 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2007.05.016 10.3389/fpsyg.2018.00513 10.1016/j.hal.2007.05.002 10.1016/j.hal.2015.12.002 10.1016/j.hal.2015.11.007 10.3390/w11020317 10.2989/18142320609504160 10.1111/j.1541-0420.2006.00574.x
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SubjectTerms	Algorithms Animals Aquaculture Bans Coasts Consumption diarrhetic shellfish toxins Dinoflagellates Dinoflagellida Dinophysis Empirical analysis Environmental Monitoring - methods Food Contamination - analysis generalized additive models Laboratories Marine Toxins - analysis Marine Toxins - toxicity Mollusks okadaic acid Plankton Portugal Public health Seafood Shellfish Shellfish Poisoning - prevention & control Thresholds time series Toxicity Toxins Tweedie distribution Water quality
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Title	Advances in the Early Warning of Shellfish Toxification by Dinophysis acuminata
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