Advances in the Early Warning of Shellfish Toxification by Dinophysis acuminata

In Western Europe, the incidence of DST is likely the highest globally, posing a significant threat with prolonged bans on shellfish harvesting, mainly caused by species of the dinoflagellate genus Dinophysis. Using a time series from 2014 to 2020, our study aimed (i) to determine the concentration...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Toxins Vol. 16; no. 5; p. 204
Main Authors: Duarte Silva, Alexandra, Rodrigues, Susana Margarida, Godinho, Lia
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Switzerland MDPI AG 24.04.2024
Subjects:
Algorithms
Animals
Aquaculture
Bans
Coasts
Consumption
diarrhetic shellfish toxins
Dinoflagellates
Dinoflagellida
Dinophysis
Empirical analysis
Environmental Monitoring - methods
Food Contamination - analysis
generalized additive models
Laboratories
Marine Toxins - analysis
Marine Toxins - toxicity
Mollusks
okadaic acid
Plankton
Portugal
Public health
Seafood
Shellfish
Shellfish Poisoning - prevention & control
Thresholds
time series
Toxicity
Toxins
Tweedie distribution
Water quality
Portugal
diarrhetic shellfish toxins
food safety
Tweedie distribution
generalized additive models
early warning
time series
Dinophysis
HABs
monitoring
okadaic acid
ISSN:2072-6651, 2072-6651
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:In Western Europe, the incidence of DST is likely the highest globally, posing a significant threat with prolonged bans on shellfish harvesting, mainly caused by species of the dinoflagellate genus Dinophysis. Using a time series from 2014 to 2020, our study aimed (i) to determine the concentration of D. acuminata in water at which shellfish toxin levels could surpass the regulatory limit (160 µg OA equiv kg−1) and (ii) to assess the predictability of toxic events for timely mitigation actions, especially concerning potential harvesting bans. The analysis considered factors such as (i) overdispersion in the data, (ii) distinct periods of presence and absence, (iii) the persistence of cells, and (iv) the temporal lag between cells in the water and toxins in shellfish. Four generalized additive models were tested, with the Tweedie (TW-GAM) model showing superior performance (>85%) and lower complexity. The results suggest existing thresholds currently employed (200 and 500 cells L−1) are well-suited for the Portuguese coast, supported by empirical evidence (54–79% accuracy). The developed algorithm allows for thresholds to be tailored on a case-by-case basis, offering flexibility for regional variations.
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ISSN:2072-6651
2072-6651
DOI:10.3390/toxins16050204