A Short-Term Wind Power Forecast Method via XGBoost Hyper-Parameters Optimization

The improvement of wind power prediction accuracy is beneficial to the effective utilization of wind energy. An improved XGBoost algorithm via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization (BH-XGBoost method) was proposed in this article, which is employed to forecast the short-term wind power for wind farms...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Frontiers in energy research Vol. 10
Main Authors:	Xiong, Xiong, Guo, Xiaojie, Zeng, Pingliang, Zou, Ruiling, Wang, Xiaolong
Format:	Journal Article
Language:	English
Published:	Frontiers Media S.A 10.05.2022
Subjects:	Bayesian hyperparameters optimization machine learning numerical weather prediction wind power forecasting Xgboost algorithm
ISSN:	2296-598X, 2296-598X
Online Access:	Get full text
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Summary:	The improvement of wind power prediction accuracy is beneficial to the effective utilization of wind energy. An improved XGBoost algorithm via Bayesian hyperparameter optimization (BH-XGBoost method) was proposed in this article, which is employed to forecast the short-term wind power for wind farms. Compared to the XGBoost, SVM, KELM, and LSTM, the results indicate that BH-XGBoost outperforms other methods in all the cases. The BH-XGBoost method could yield a more minor estimated error than the other methods, especially in the cases of wind ramp events caused by extreme weather conditions and low wind speed range. The comparison results led to the recommendation that the BH-XGBoost method is an effective method to forecast the short-term wind power for wind farms.
ISSN:	2296-598X 2296-598X
DOI:	10.3389/fenrg.2022.905155