Atmospheric Turbulence Forecasts for Air Force and Missile Defense Applications

We have developed a hybrid deterministic/probabilistic methodology that uses a Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling (BHM) framework to forecast atmospheric turbulence in the upper-troposphere and lower-stratosphere for Air Force and Missile Defense applications. The approach incorporates three different m...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:2010 DoD High Performance Computing Modernization Program Users Group Conference pp. 155 - 160
Main Authors: Werne, J., Fritts, D. C., Ling Wang, Lund, T., Kam Wan
Format: Conference Proceeding
Language:English
Published: IEEE 01.06.2010
Subjects:
Aircraft
Atmospheric modeling
Computational modeling
Equations
Mathematical model
Numerical models
Predictive models
ISBN:9781612849867, 1612849865
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:We have developed a hybrid deterministic/probabilistic methodology that uses a Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling (BHM) framework to forecast atmospheric turbulence in the upper-troposphere and lower-stratosphere for Air Force and Missile Defense applications. The approach incorporates three different modeling methods: 1) the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model (WRF) provides numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts of atmospheric conditions, 2) Fourier-ray (FR) and Fourier-Laplace (FL) models simulate the propagation and breakdown of internal gravity waves (GWs) triggered by topography and predicted strong-convective events, and 3) compiled statistics from high-resolution direct-numerical simulations (DNS) of gravity-wave breaking and Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) turbulence guide the FR and FL wave-saturation models and estimate the resulting optical and mechanical turbulence associated with the WRF, FR, and FL output.
ISBN:9781612849867
1612849865
DOI:10.1109/HPCMP-UGC.2010.75