The mobility gap: estimating mobility thresholds required to control SARS-CoV-2 in Canada

Nonpharmaceutical interventions remain the primary means of controlling severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) until vaccination coverage is sufficient to achieve herd immunity. We used anonymized smartphone mobility measures to quantify the mobility level needed to control SAR...

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Vydáno v:Canadian Medical Association journal (CMAJ) Ročník 193; číslo 17; s. E592 - E600
Hlavní autoři: Brown, Kevin A., Soucy, Jean-Paul R., Buchan, Sarah A., Sturrock, Shelby L., Berry, Isha, Stall, Nathan M., Jüni, Peter, Ghasemi, Amir, Gibb, Nicholas, MacFadden, Derek R., Daneman, Nick
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Canada Elsevier Inc 26.04.2021
CMA Joule Inc
CMA Impact, Inc
Témata:
Canada
Canada - epidemiology
Control
Coronaviruses
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - prevention & control
COVID-19 Testing - trends
COVID-19 vaccines
Disease transmission
Disease Transmission, Infectious - prevention & control
Epidemics
Female
Forecasting
Herd immunity
Humans
Incidence
Internal Medicine
Interrupted Time Series Analysis
Male
Medical research
Medicine, Experimental
Open data
Physical Distancing
Provinces
Public Health
Quarantine - trends
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Smart phones
Smartphones
Spatial behavior
Statistics
Canada
ISSN:0820-3946, 1488-2329, 1488-2329
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Shrnutí:Nonpharmaceutical interventions remain the primary means of controlling severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) until vaccination coverage is sufficient to achieve herd immunity. We used anonymized smartphone mobility measures to quantify the mobility level needed to control SARS-CoV-2 (i.e., mobility threshold), and the difference relative to the observed mobility level (i.e., mobility gap). We conducted a time-series study of the weekly incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in Canada from Mar. 15, 2020, to Mar. 6, 2021. The outcome was weekly growth rate, defined as the ratio of cases in a given week versus the previous week. We evaluated the effects of average time spent outside the home in the previous 3 weeks using a log-normal regression model, accounting for province, week and mean temperature. We calculated the SARS-CoV-2 mobility threshold and gap. Across the 51-week study period, a total of 888 751 people were infected with SARS-CoV-2. Each 10% increase in the mobility gap was associated with a 25% increase in the SARS-CoV-2 weekly case growth rate (ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval 1.20–1.29). Compared to the prepandemic baseline mobility of 100%, the mobility threshold was highest in the summer (69%; interquartile range [IQR] 67%–70%), and dropped to 54% in winter 2021 (IQR 52%–55%); a mobility gap was present in Canada from July 2020 until the last week of December 2020. Mobility strongly and consistently predicts weekly case growth, and low levels of mobility are needed to control SARS-CoV-2 through spring 2021. Mobility measures from anonymized smartphone data can be used to guide provincial and regional loosening and tightening of physical distancing measures.
Bibliografie:ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
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ISSN:0820-3946
1488-2329
1488-2329
DOI:10.1503/cmaj.210132