The long-term forecast of Taiwan’s energy supply and demand: LEAP model application

The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan’s lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation’s pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supp...

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Vydáno v:Energy policy Ročník 39; číslo 11; s. 6790 - 6803
Hlavní autoři: Huang, Yophy, Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey, Peng, Chieh-Yu
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.11.2011
Elsevier
Elsevier Science Ltd
Témata:
Alternative energy sources
Applied sciences
Carbon emission reduction
Carbon emissions
Climate
Climate policy
Economic data
Economic development
Economic growth
Efficiency
Energy
Energy (nuclear)
Energy consumption
Energy demand
Energy development
Energy economics
Energy efficiency
Energy forecast
Energy industry
Energy policy
Energy resources
Energy sector
Energy usage
Energy use
Environmental policy
Evolution
Exact sciences and technology
Forecasting
Forecasts
General, economic and professional studies
greenhouse gas emissions
Greenhouse gases
Imports
LEAP model
Long term
Mathematical models
Methodology. Modelling
Natural resources
Nuclear energy
Nuclear power plants
Planning
Policies
Retirement
Studies
Supply & demand
Supply and demand
supply balance
Sustainable development
Taiwan
Taiwan
Asia
Energy forecast
Energy policy
Carbon emission reduction
Script
Distribution by sources
Energy economy
2020
Long term
Modeling
Forecasting
Energy savings
Nuclear energy
Electricity
Supply demand balance
Energy conservation
Economic growth
Production capacity
Medium term
ISSN:0301-4215, 1873-6777
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Popis
Shrnutí:The long-term forecasting of energy supply and demand is an extremely important topic of fundamental research in Taiwan due to Taiwan’s lack of natural resources, dependence on energy imports, and the nation’s pursuit of sustainable development. In this article, we provide an overview of energy supply and demand in Taiwan, and a summary of the historical evolution and current status of its energy policies, as background to a description of the preparation and application of a Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model of Taiwan’s energy sector. The Taiwan LEAP model is used to compare future energy demand and supply patterns, as well as greenhouse gas emissions, for several alternative scenarios of energy policy and energy sector evolution. Results of scenarios featuring “business-as-usual” policies, aggressive energy-efficiency improvement policies, and on-schedule retirement of Taiwan’s three existing nuclear plants are provided and compared, along with sensitivity cases exploring the impacts of lower economic growth assumptions. A concluding section provides an interpretation of the implications of model results for future energy and climate policies in Taiwan. ► The LEAP model is useful for international energy policy comparison. ► Nuclear power plants have significant, positive impacts on CO 2 emission. ► The most effective energy policy is to adopt demand-side management. ► Reasonable energy pricing provides incentives for energy efficiency and conservation. ► Financial crisis has less impact on energy demand than aggressive energy policy.
Bibliografie:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.023
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ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.10.023