Contact-number-driven virus evolution: A multi-level modeling framework for the evolution of acute or persistent RNA virus infection

Viruses evolve in infected host populations, and host population dynamics affect viral evolution. RNA viruses with a short duration of infection and a high peak viral load, such as SARS-CoV-2, are maintained in human populations. By contrast, RNA viruses characterized by a long infection duration an...

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Veröffentlicht in:PLoS computational biology Jg. 19; H. 5; S. e1011173
Hauptverfasser: Sunagawa, Junya, Komorizono, Ryo, Park, Hyeongki, Hart, William S., Thompson, Robin N., Makino, Akiko, Tomonaga, Keizo, Iwami, Shingo, Yamaguchi, Ryo
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: United States Public Library of Science 30.05.2023
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Schlagworte:
Accuracy
Analysis
Animals
Binomial distribution
Biology and Life Sciences
Borna disease
COVID-19
Disease
Disease transmission
Equilibrium
Evolution
Genetic algorithms
Genetic aspects
Health aspects
Human populations
Humans
Infection
Infections
Medicine and Health Sciences
Modelling
Natural history
Peak load
Persistent infection
Population biology
Population dynamics
Populations
RNA
RNA polymerase
RNA viruses
SARS-CoV-2 - genetics
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Viral diseases
Viral infections
Virus Diseases
Viruses
Viruses - genetics
Japan
ISSN:1553-7358, 1553-734X, 1553-7358
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Zusammenfassung:Viruses evolve in infected host populations, and host population dynamics affect viral evolution. RNA viruses with a short duration of infection and a high peak viral load, such as SARS-CoV-2, are maintained in human populations. By contrast, RNA viruses characterized by a long infection duration and a low peak viral load (e.g., borna disease virus) can be maintained in nonhuman populations, and the process of the evolution of persistent viruses has rarely been explored. Here, using a multi-level modeling approach including both individual-level virus infection dynamics and population-scale transmission, we consider virus evolution based on the host environment, specifically, the effect of the contact history of infected hosts. We found that, with a highly dense contact history, viruses with a high virus production rate but low accuracy are likely to be optimal, resulting in a short infectious period with a high peak viral load. In contrast, with a low-density contact history, viral evolution is toward low virus production but high accuracy, resulting in long infection durations with low peak viral load. Our study sheds light on the origin of persistent viruses and why acute viral infections but not persistent virus infection tends to prevail in human society.
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KT and SI also contributed equally to this work.
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
ISSN:1553-7358
1553-734X
1553-7358
DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1011173