Human Initiated Cascading Failures in Societal Infrastructures

In this paper, we conduct a systematic study of human-initiated cascading failures in three critical inter-dependent societal infrastructures due to behavioral adaptations in response to a crisis. We focus on three closely coupled socio-technical networks here: (i) cellular and mesh networks, (ii) t...

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Veröffentlicht in:PloS one Jg. 7; H. 10; S. e45406
Hauptverfasser: Barrett, Chris, Channakeshava, Karthik, Huang, Fei, Kim, Junwhan, Marathe, Achla, Marathe, Madhav V., Pei, Guanhong, Saha, Sudip, Subbiah, Balaaji S. P., Vullikanti, Anil Kumar S.
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: United States Public Library of Science 31.10.2012
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Schlagworte:
Adaptation
Analysis
Architectural engineering
Behavior
Bioinformatics
Calling behavior
Cell Phone
Cellular communication
Chemical plumes
Civilian evacuation
Coevolution
Communication
Communications networks
Computer engineering
Computer Science
Congestion
Emergency preparedness
Evacuation
Failure
Finite element method
Geographical coordinates
Handbooks
human mobility
Humans
Hurricanes
Infrastructure
International conferences
Laboratories
Management decisions
Mathematics
MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING
Medicine
network analysis
Population density
roads
Sensitivity analysis
Shelters
Simulation
Social and Behavioral Sciences
Social aspects
Social factors
Social Networking
social systems
Spatial distribution
Stations
Stress concentration
Stress, Psychological - psychology
System dynamics
telecommunications
Telecommunications systems
Traffic
Traffic congestion
Transportation
transportation infrastructure
Transportation networks
Urban areas
urban infrastructure
Urban transportation
Wireless networks
United States > US
Virginia
ISSN:1932-6203, 1932-6203
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:In this paper, we conduct a systematic study of human-initiated cascading failures in three critical inter-dependent societal infrastructures due to behavioral adaptations in response to a crisis. We focus on three closely coupled socio-technical networks here: (i) cellular and mesh networks, (ii) transportation networks and (iii) mobile call networks. In crises, changes in individual behaviors lead to altered travel, activity and calling patterns, which influence the transport network and the loads on wireless networks. The interaction between these systems and their co-evolution poses significant technical challenges for representing and reasoning about these systems. In contrast to system dynamics models for studying these interacting infrastructures, we develop interaction-based models in which individuals and infrastructure elements are represented in detail and are placed in a common geographic coordinate system. Using the detailed representation, we study the impact of a chemical plume that has been released in a densely populated urban region. Authorities order evacuation of the affected area, and this leads to individual behavioral adaptation wherein individuals drop their scheduled activities and drive to home or pre-specified evacuation shelters as appropriate. They also revise their calling behavior to communicate and coordinate among family members. These two behavioral adaptations cause flash-congestion in the urban transport network and the wireless network. The problem is exacerbated with a few, already occurring, road closures. We analyze how extended periods of unanticipated road congestion can result in failure of infrastructures, starting with the servicing base stations in the congested area. A sensitivity analysis on the compliance rate of evacuees shows non-intuitive effect on the spatial distribution of people and on the loading of the base stations. For example, an evacuation compliance rate of 70% results in higher number of overloaded base stations than the evacuation compliance rate of 90%.
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Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA)
SC0003957; CNS-0626964; SES-0729441; OCI-0904844; CNS-0831633; CNS-0845700; CNS-1011769; OCI-1032677; HDTRA1-0901-0017; HDTRA1-07-C-0113; N00178-09-D-3017
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
National Science Foundation (NSF)
US Naval Surface Warfare Center
National Institutes of Health (NIH)
Conceived and designed the experiments: CB KC FH JK AM MM GP SS BS AV. Performed the experiments: CB KC FH JK AM MM GP SS BS AV. Analyzed the data: CB KC FH JK AM MM GP SS BS AV. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: CB KC FH JK AM MM GP SS BS AV. Wrote the paper: CB KC FH JK AM MM GP SS BS AV.
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0045406