Permissive Summer Temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile Fever Upsurge
In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation. Pearson and l...
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| Vydáno v: | PloS one Ročník 8; číslo 2; s. e56398 |
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| Jazyk: | angličtina |
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Public Library of Science
19.02.2013
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
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| ISSN: | 1932-6203, 1932-6203 |
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| Abstract | In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation.
Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks.
For human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern ("colder") countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern ("warmer") countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks.
Significant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles. |
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| AbstractList | In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation. Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks. For human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern ("colder") countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern ("warmer") countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks. Significant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles. In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation. Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks. For human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern ("colder") countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern ("warmer") countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks. Significant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles. Background In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation. Methods Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks. Results For human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern ("colder") countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern ("warmer") countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks. Conclusions Significant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles. Background In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation. Methods Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks. Results For human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern (“colder”) countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern (“warmer”) countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks. Conclusions Significant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles. In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation.BACKGROUNDIn the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation.Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks.METHODSPearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks.For human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern ("colder") countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern ("warmer") countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks.RESULTSFor human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern ("colder") countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern ("warmer") countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks.Significant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles.CONCLUSIONSSignificant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles. |
| Audience | Academic |
| Author | Semenza, Jan C. Paz, Shlomit Tsioni, Gil Malkinson, Dan Ceianu, Cornelia Green, Manfred S. Ferenczi, Emőke Sirbu, Anca Papa, Anna Danis, Kostas Zeller, Herve Katalin, Krisztalovics |
| AuthorAffiliation | 8 European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden 4 Hellenic Centre of Disease Prevention & Control, Athens, Greece 1 Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel 3 Department of Microbiology, Medical School, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece 6 Cantacuzino National Institute for Research and Development in Microbiology and Immunology, Bucharest, Romania 7 National Center for Epidemiology, Budapest, Hungary Louisiana State University, United States of America 2 School of Public Health, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel 5 National Center for Surveillance and Control of Communicable Diseases, Bucharest, Romania |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 8 European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden – name: 2 School of Public Health, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel – name: 1 Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel – name: 6 Cantacuzino National Institute for Research and Development in Microbiology and Immunology, Bucharest, Romania – name: 4 Hellenic Centre of Disease Prevention & Control, Athens, Greece – name: Louisiana State University, United States of America – name: 7 National Center for Epidemiology, Budapest, Hungary – name: 5 National Center for Surveillance and Control of Communicable Diseases, Bucharest, Romania – name: 3 Department of Microbiology, Medical School, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Shlomit surname: Paz fullname: Paz, Shlomit – sequence: 2 givenname: Dan surname: Malkinson fullname: Malkinson, Dan – sequence: 3 givenname: Manfred S. surname: Green fullname: Green, Manfred S. – sequence: 4 givenname: Gil surname: Tsioni fullname: Tsioni, Gil – sequence: 5 givenname: Anna surname: Papa fullname: Papa, Anna – sequence: 6 givenname: Kostas surname: Danis fullname: Danis, Kostas – sequence: 7 givenname: Anca surname: Sirbu fullname: Sirbu, Anca – sequence: 8 givenname: Cornelia surname: Ceianu fullname: Ceianu, Cornelia – sequence: 9 givenname: Krisztalovics surname: Katalin fullname: Katalin, Krisztalovics – sequence: 10 givenname: Emőke surname: Ferenczi fullname: Ferenczi, Emőke – sequence: 11 givenname: Herve surname: Zeller fullname: Zeller, Herve – sequence: 12 givenname: Jan C. surname: Semenza fullname: Semenza, Jan C. |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23431374$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| ContentType | Journal Article |
| Copyright | COPYRIGHT 2013 Public Library of Science 2013 Paz et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (the “License”), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Notwithstanding the ProQuest Terms and Conditions, you may use this content in accordance with the terms of the License. 2013 Paz et al 2013 Paz et al |
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| Notes | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23 Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Conceived and designed the experiments: SP JCS. Performed the experiments: SP DM MSG GT. Analyzed the data: SP DM MSG GT JCS. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: AP KD AS CC KK EF HZ. Wrote the paper: SP JCS. |
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| Snippet | In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to... Background In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this... BACKGROUND: In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this... Background In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this... |
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| SubjectTerms | Animal Migration Animals Biology Climate change Correlation Culex Culex pipiens Culicidae Disease Disease Outbreaks Disease prevention Disease transmission Encephalitis Environmental studies Epidemics Epidemiology Europe - epidemiology Fever Horse Diseases - epidemiology Horse Diseases - virology Horses Hot spells Humans Humidity Incidence Infections Latitude Medicine Meningitis Morbidity Mosquitoes open climate campaign Outbreaks Precipitation Precipitation (Meteorology) Rainfall Relative humidity Seasons Summer Summer temperatures Surveillance Temperature Temperature effects Vector-borne diseases Vectors (Biology) West Nile fever West Nile Fever - epidemiology West Nile Fever - veterinary West Nile virus |
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| Title | Permissive Summer Temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile Fever Upsurge |
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