Permissive Summer Temperatures of the 2010 European West Nile Fever Upsurge

In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation. Pearson and l...

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Published in:PloS one Vol. 8; no. 2; p. e56398
Main Authors: Paz, Shlomit, Malkinson, Dan, Green, Manfred S., Tsioni, Gil, Papa, Anna, Danis, Kostas, Sirbu, Anca, Ceianu, Cornelia, Katalin, Krisztalovics, Ferenczi, Emőke, Zeller, Herve, Semenza, Jan C.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States Public Library of Science 19.02.2013
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Subjects:
Animal Migration
Animals
Biology
Climate change
Correlation
Culex
Culex pipiens
Culicidae
Disease
Disease Outbreaks
Disease prevention
Disease transmission
Encephalitis
Environmental studies
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Europe - epidemiology
Fever
Horse Diseases - epidemiology
Horse Diseases - virology
Horses
Hot spells
Humans
Humidity
Incidence
Infections
Latitude
Medicine
Meningitis
Morbidity
Mosquitoes
open climate campaign
Outbreaks
Precipitation
Precipitation (Meteorology)
Rainfall
Relative humidity
Seasons
Summer
Summer temperatures
Surveillance
Temperature
Temperature effects
Vector-borne diseases
Vectors (Biology)
West Nile fever
West Nile Fever - epidemiology
West Nile Fever - veterinary
West Nile virus
Europe
Hungary
Israel
ISSN:1932-6203, 1932-6203
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Summary:In the summer of 2010, Europe experienced outbreaks of West Nile Fever (WNF) in humans, which was preceded by hot spells. The objective of this study was to identify potential drivers of these outbreaks, such as spring and summer temperatures, relative humidity (RH), and precipitation. Pearson and lag correlations, binary and multinomial logistic regressions were used to assess the relationship between the climatic parameters and these outbreaks. For human morbidity, significant (<0.05) positive correlations were observed between a number of WNF cases and temperature, with a geographic latitude gradient: northern ("colder") countries displayed strong correlations with a lag of up to four weeks, in contrast to southern ("warmer") countries, where the response was immediate. The correlations with RH were weaker, while the association with precipitation was not consistent. Horse morbidity started three weeks later than in humans where integrated surveillance was conducted, and no significant associations with temperature or RH were found for lags of 0 to 4 weeks. Significant temperature deviations during summer months might be considered environmental precursors of WNF outbreaks in humans, particularly at more northern latitudes. These insights can guide vector abatement strategies by health practitioners in areas at risk for persistent transmission cycles.
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Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
Conceived and designed the experiments: SP JCS. Performed the experiments: SP DM MSG GT. Analyzed the data: SP DM MSG GT JCS. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: AP KD AS CC KK EF HZ. Wrote the paper: SP JCS.
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0056398