Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand

This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008. Household total final consu...

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Veröffentlicht in:Energy policy Jg. 39; H. 6; S. 3117 - 3127
Hauptverfasser: Dilaver, Zafer, Hunt, Lester C
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2011
Elsevier
Elsevier Science Ltd
Schriftenreihe:Energy Policy
Schlagworte:
Applied sciences
Behavior change
Behavior modification
Consumer behavior
Consumption
Data analysis
Decision makers
Decision making
Demand
demand elasticities
Economic change
Economic data
Economic structure
Elasticity of demand
Electric energy
Electric rates
Electricity
electricity costs
Energy
Energy consumption
Energy demand
Energy demand modelling and future scenarios
Energy economics
Energy market
Energy policy
Energy prices
equations
Estimation
Exact sciences and technology
Expenditures
Forecasting
Fossil fuels
General, economic and professional studies
Household expenditure
Households
issues and policy
Marketing
Mathematical models
Methodology. Modelling
planning
Power demand
Price elasticity
Prices
Residential
Residential areas
Structural time series model (STSM)
Studies
Technological progress
Time series
time series analysis
Turkey
Turkey (country)
Turkish residential electricity demand
Turkish residential electricity demand Structural time series model (STSM) Energy demand modelling and future scenarios
Turkey (country)
Asia
Turkey
Energy demand modelling and future scenarios
Turkish residential electricity demand
Structural time series model (STSM)
Demand
Econometric analysis
Time series
Econometric model
scenarios
Long term
Forecasting
Electricity
Price
Expenditure
Electric power consumption
Ratio of economic flexibility
Energy demand modelling and future
Residential sector
ISSN:0301-4215, 1873-6777
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:This research investigates the relationship between Turkish residential electricity consumption, household total final consumption expenditure and residential electricity prices by applying the structural time series model to annual data over the period from 1960 to 2008. Household total final consumption expenditure, real energy prices and an underlying energy demand trend are found to be important drivers of Turkish residential electricity demand with the estimated short run and the long run total final consumption expenditure elasticities being 0.38 and 1.57, respectively, and the estimated short run and long run price elasticities being −0.09 and −0.38, respectively. Moreover, the estimated underlying energy demand trend, (which, as far as is known, has not been investigated before for the Turkish residential sector) should be of some benefit to Turkish decision makers in terms of energy planning. It provides information about the impact of past policies, the influence of technical progress, the impacts of changes in consumer behaviour and the effects of changes in economic structure. Furthermore, based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish residential electricity demand will be somewhere between 48 and 80 TWh by 2020 compared to 40 TWh in 2008. ► Estimated short run and long run expenditure elasticities of 0.38 and 1.57, respectively. ► Estimated short run and long run price elasticities of −0.09 and −0.38, respectively. ► Estimated UEDT has increasing (i.e. energy using) and decreasing (i.e. energy saving) periods. ► Predicted Turkish residential electricity demand between 48 and 80 TWh in 2020.
Bibliographie:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.059
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ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.02.059