Fuel consumption from vehicles of China until 2030 in energy scenarios

Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence the fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light tru...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy policy Vol. 38; no. 11; pp. 6860 - 6867
Main Authors: Zhang, Qingyu, Tian, Weili, Zheng, Yingyue, Zhang, Lili
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.11.2010
Elsevier
Elsevier Science Ltd
Series:Energy Policy
Subjects:
Alternative energy
Alternative energy sources
Alternatives
Applied sciences
Automobiles
Automotive engineering
Buses
China
China (People's Republic)
Consumption
Diesel engines
Diesel fuels
Economic data
Economic growth
Economics
Energy
Energy conservation
Energy consumption
Energy economics
Energy efficiency
Energy planning
Energy policy
Energy policy Fuel consumption Vehicle numbers
Environmental policy
Ethanol
Ethyl alcohol
Exact sciences and technology
Forecasting
Fossil fuels and derived products
Fuel
Fuel consumption
Fuel economy
Fuels
Gasoline
GDP
General, economic and professional studies
Government regulations
Gross Domestic Product
Mathematical models
Measurement
Methodology. Modelling
Motor vehicles
Oil
Planning
Regulation
Studies
Trucks
Vehicle numbers
Vehicles
Asia
China
China, People's Rep
Vehicle numbers
Fuel consumption
Energy policy
Demand
Script
Motor car
Diesel fuel
Lightweight vehicle
Motor cycle
Long term
Modeling
Forecasting
Energy savings
Heavy truck
Lorry
Alternative motor fuel
Energy conservation
Gasoline
Bottom up method
Motor fuel consumption
ISSN:0301-4215, 1873-6777
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence the fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light trucks (Lts), heavy trucks (Hts), buses and motor cycles (MCs) are calculated with respect to (i) the number of vehicles, (ii) distance traveled, and (iii) fuel economy. On the other hand, the consumption rate of alternative energy sources (i.e. ethanol, methanol, biomass-diesel and CNG) is not evaluated here. The number of vehicles is evaluated using the economic elastic coefficient method, relating to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) from 1997 to 2007. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is employed to develop a simple model to project fuel consumption in China until 2030 under these scenarios. Three energy consumption decrease scenarios are designed to estimate the reduction of fuel consumption: (i) ‘business as usual’ (BAU); (ii) ‘advanced fuel economy’ (AFE); and (iii) ‘alternative energy replacement’ (AER). It is shown that fuel consumption is predicted to reach 992.28 Mtoe (million tons oil equivalent) with the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE and AER scenarios, fuel consumption is predicted to be 734.68 and 600.36 Mtoe, respectively, by 2030. In the AER scenario, fuel consumption in 2030 will be reduced by 391.92 (39.50%) and 134.29 (18.28%) Mtoe in comparison to the BAU and AFE scenarios, respectively. In conclusion, our models indicate that the energy conservation policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.
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ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.06.058