Fuel consumption from vehicles of China until 2030 in energy scenarios

Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence the fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light tru...

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Vydáno v:	Energy policy Ročník 38; číslo 11; s. 6860 - 6867
Hlavní autoři:	Zhang, Qingyu, Tian, Weili, Zheng, Yingyue, Zhang, Lili
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.11.2010 Elsevier Elsevier Science Ltd
Edice:	Energy Policy
Témata:	Alternative energy Alternative energy sources Alternatives Applied sciences Automobiles Automotive engineering Buses China China (People's Republic) Consumption Diesel engines Diesel fuels Economic data Economic growth Economics Energy Energy conservation Energy consumption Energy economics Energy efficiency Energy planning Energy policy Energy policy Fuel consumption Vehicle numbers Environmental policy Ethanol Ethyl alcohol Exact sciences and technology Forecasting Fossil fuels and derived products Fuel Fuel consumption Fuel economy Fuels Gasoline GDP General, economic and professional studies Government regulations Gross Domestic Product Mathematical models Measurement Methodology. Modelling Motor vehicles Oil Planning Regulation Studies Trucks Vehicle numbers Vehicles Asia China China, People's Rep Vehicle numbers Fuel consumption Energy policy Demand Script Motor car Diesel fuel Lightweight vehicle Motor cycle Long term Modeling Forecasting Energy savings Heavy truck Lorry Alternative motor fuel Energy conservation Gasoline Bottom up method Motor fuel consumption
ISSN:	0301-4215, 1873-6777
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Shrnutí:	Estimation of fuel (gasoline and diesel) consumption for vehicles in China under different long-term energy policy scenarios is presented here. The fuel economy of different vehicle types is subject to variation of government regulations; hence the fuel consumption of passenger cars (PCs), light trucks (Lts), heavy trucks (Hts), buses and motor cycles (MCs) are calculated with respect to (i) the number of vehicles, (ii) distance traveled, and (iii) fuel economy. On the other hand, the consumption rate of alternative energy sources (i.e. ethanol, methanol, biomass-diesel and CNG) is not evaluated here. The number of vehicles is evaluated using the economic elastic coefficient method, relating to per capita gross domestic product (GDP) from 1997 to 2007. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is employed to develop a simple model to project fuel consumption in China until 2030 under these scenarios. Three energy consumption decrease scenarios are designed to estimate the reduction of fuel consumption: (i) ‘business as usual’ (BAU); (ii) ‘advanced fuel economy’ (AFE); and (iii) ‘alternative energy replacement’ (AER). It is shown that fuel consumption is predicted to reach 992.28 Mtoe (million tons oil equivalent) with the BAU scenario by 2030. In the AFE and AER scenarios, fuel consumption is predicted to be 734.68 and 600.36 Mtoe, respectively, by 2030. In the AER scenario, fuel consumption in 2030 will be reduced by 391.92 (39.50%) and 134.29 (18.28%) Mtoe in comparison to the BAU and AFE scenarios, respectively. In conclusion, our models indicate that the energy conservation policies introduced by governmental institutions are potentially viable, as long as they are effectively implemented.
Bibliografie:	SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 14 ObjectType-Article-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23 ObjectType-Article-2
ISSN:	0301-4215 1873-6777
DOI:	10.1016/j.enpol.2010.06.058