Projection of the future diabetes burden in the United States through 2060

Background In the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060. Methods...

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Vydáno v:Population health metrics Ročník 16; číslo 1; s. 9
Hlavní autoři: Lin, Ji, Thompson, Theodore J., Cheng, Yiling J., Zhuo, Xiaohui, Zhang, Ping, Gregg, Edward, Rolka, Deborah B.
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: London BioMed Central 15.06.2018
BioMed Central Ltd
Springer Nature B.V
BMC
Témata:
Adolescent
Adult
Adults
African Americans
Age
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Census of Population
Continental Population Groups
Demographics
Demography
Diabetes
Diabetes mellitus
Diabetes Mellitus - epidemiology
Diabetes Mellitus - mortality
Diabetics
Diagnosis
Disease prevention
Epidemiology
Estimates
Ethnic Groups
European Continental Ancestry Group
Female
Forecasting
Forecasts and trends
Health Services Research
Humans
Incidence
Longitudinal Studies
Male
Markov chains
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Middle Aged
Migration
Monte Carlo simulation
Morbidity
Mortality
Population statistics
Prevalence
Public Health
Race
Research Methodology
Sex
Sex Factors
Statistics
Systematic review
United States - epidemiology
Womens health
Young Adult
United States
United States > US
Dynamic Markov Model
Future Diabetes
Percent Prevalence
Census Projections
Diabetes Burden
ISSN:1478-7954, 1478-7954
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Popis
Shrnutí:Background In the United States, diabetes has increased rapidly, exceeding prior predictions. Projections of the future diabetes burden need to reflect changes in incidence, mortality, and demographics. We applied the most recent data available to develop an updated projection through 2060. Methods A dynamic Markov model was used to project prevalence of diagnosed diabetes among US adults by age, sex, and race (white, black, other). Incidence and current prevalence were from the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1985–2014. Relative mortality was from NHIS 2000–2011 follow-up data linked to the National Death Index. Future population estimates including birth, death, and migration were from the 2014 Census projection. Results The projected number and percent of adults with diagnosed diabetes would increase from 22.3 million (9.1%) in 2014 to 39.7 million (13.9%) in 2030, and to 60.6 million (17.9%) in 2060. The number of people with diabetes aged 65 years or older would increase from 9.2 million in 2014 to 21.0 million in 2030, and to 35.2 million in 2060. The percent prevalence would increase in all race-sex groups, with black women and men continuing to have the highest diabetes percent prevalence, and black women and women of other race having the largest relative increases. Conclusions By 2060, the number of US adults with diagnosed diabetes is projected to nearly triple, and the percent prevalence double. Our estimates are essential to predict health services needs and plan public health programs aimed to reduce the future burden of diabetes.
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ISSN:1478-7954
1478-7954
DOI:10.1186/s12963-018-0166-4