Model projections for household energy use in India

Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is presen...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy policy Vol. 39; no. 12; pp. 7747 - 7761
Main Authors: van Ruijven, Bas J., van Vuuren, Detlef P., de Vries, Bert J.M., Isaac, Morna, van der Sluijs, Jeroen P., Lucas, Paul L., Balachandra, P.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Kidlington Elsevier Ltd 01.12.2011
Elsevier
Elsevier Science Ltd
Subjects:
Applied sciences
carbon
Carbon dioxide
Carbon dioxide emissions
Carbon emissions
Climate change
Cooking
Developing countries
Economic data
Economic development
Economic growth
Electric power
Electricity
Electricity distribution
Electrification
Emissions
Emissions trading
Energy
Energy consumption
Energy economics
Energy industry
Energy modelling
Energy policy
Energy use
Exact sciences and technology
Food preparation
Fuel
fuels
General, economic and professional studies
greenhouse gas emissions
heat
Heating
Heterogeneity
Household energy consumption
Households
Income
Income distribution
India
International trade
LDCs
Lighting
Mathematical models
Methodology. Modelling
Population growth
Poverty
Poverty relief
Projections
Residential areas
Residential energy
Residential location
Rural
Rural areas
Rural communities
Rural electrification
Rural urban differences
Studies
Trade
Urban areas
Water
India
Asia
Energy modelling
Household energy consumption
India
Energy consumption
Script
Cooking
Household electrical appliances
Urban area
Long term
Modeling
Forecasting
2050
Income distribution
Heating
Lighting
Electrification
Bottom up method
Rural area
Hot water production
Residential sector
ISSN:0301-4215, 1873-6777
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Energy use in developing countries is heterogeneous across households. Present day global energy models are mostly too aggregate to account for this heterogeneity. Here, a bottom-up model for residential energy use that starts from key dynamic concepts on energy use in developing countries is presented and applied to India. Energy use and fuel choice is determined for five end-use functions (cooking, water heating, space heating, lighting and appliances) and for five different income quintiles in rural and urban areas. The paper specifically explores the consequences of different assumptions for income distribution and rural electrification on residential sector energy use and CO 2 emissions, finding that results are clearly sensitive to variations in these parameters. As a result of population and economic growth, total Indian residential energy use is expected to increase by around 65–75% in 2050 compared to 2005, but residential carbon emissions may increase by up to 9–10 times the 2005 level. While a more equal income distribution and rural electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels and reduce poverty, there is a trade-off in terms of higher CO 2 emissions via increased electricity use. ► A bottom-up model for residential energy use was developed and applied to India. ► The model distinguishes five end-use functions and rural/urban income quintiles. ► We explore consequences of income distribution and electrification on energy use. ► Equal income and electrification enhance the transition to commercial fuels. ► Higher CO 2 emissions from increased electricity use are a trade-off.
Bibliography:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.021
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ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.021