Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa
Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil wa...
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| Vydané v: | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Ročník 106; číslo 49; s. 20670 |
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| Hlavní autori: | , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | English |
| Vydavateľské údaje: |
United States
08.12.2009
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| Predmet: | |
| ISSN: | 1091-6490, 1091-6490 |
| On-line prístup: | Zistit podrobnosti o prístupe |
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| Abstract | Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures. |
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| AbstractList | Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures. Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures. |
| Author | Satyanath, Shanker Burke, Marshall B Miguel, Edward Lobell, David B Dykema, John A |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Marshall B surname: Burke fullname: Burke, Marshall B email: marshall.burke@berkeley.edu organization: Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. marshall.burke@berkeley.edu – sequence: 2 givenname: Edward surname: Miguel fullname: Miguel, Edward – sequence: 3 givenname: Shanker surname: Satyanath fullname: Satyanath, Shanker – sequence: 4 givenname: John A surname: Dykema fullname: Dykema, John A – sequence: 5 givenname: David B surname: Lobell fullname: Lobell, David B |
| BackLink | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19934048$$D View this record in MEDLINE/PubMed |
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| References | 18239122 - Science. 2008 Feb 1;319(5863):607-10 19295588 - Nature. 2009 Mar 19;458(7236):282-3 24520173 - Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 Feb 11;111(6):2100-3 17915603 - Hum Factors. 2007 Oct;49(5):851-77 21118990 - Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2010 Dec 21;107(51):E185; author reply E186-7 17569654 - Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2007 Aug 15;365(1857):2053-75 18048343 - Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2007 Dec 4;104(49):19214-9 24429351 - Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 Feb 11;111(6):E636 9418277 - J Pers Soc Psychol. 1997 Dec;73(6):1213-23 |
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| SubjectTerms | Africa South of the Sahara - epidemiology Global Warming Greenhouse Effect Incidence Regression Analysis Risk Factors Warfare |
| Title | Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa |
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