Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa

Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil wa...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 106; no. 49; p. 20670
Main Authors: Burke, Marshall B, Miguel, Edward, Satyanath, Shanker, Dykema, John A, Lobell, David B
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States 08.12.2009
Subjects:
Africa South of the Sahara - epidemiology
Global Warming
Greenhouse Effect
Incidence
Regression Analysis
Risk Factors
Warfare
Africa South of the Sahara
ISSN:1091-6490, 1091-6490
Online Access:Get more information
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Summary:Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.
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ISSN:1091-6490
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.0907998106