The costs of mitigating carbon emissions in China: findings from China MARKAL-MACRO modeling

In this paper MARKAL-MACRO, an integrated energy-environment-economy model, is used to generate China’s reference scenario for future energy development and carbon emission through the year 2050. The results show that with great efforts on structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement and ener...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy policy Vol. 33; no. 7; pp. 885 - 896
Main Author: Chen, Wenying
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.05.2005
Elsevier
Elsevier Science Ltd
Series:Energy Policy
Subjects:
Air pollution
Applied sciences
Carbon
Carbon emission
China
Climate change
Coal
Cooperation
Development strategies
Economic data
Economic development
Economic models
Economic policy
Economic theory
Emission ceiling
Emissions
Energy
Energy consumption
Energy development
Energy economics
Energy efficiency
Energy policy
Energy resources
Energy sources
Energy utilization
Environmental policy
Environmental protection
Exact sciences and technology
GDP losses
General, economic and professional studies
Global climate
Gross domestic product
International cooperation
Marginal abatement cost
MARKAL-MACRO model
Methodology. Modelling
Mitigation
Pollution
Reference scenario
Studies
Sustainable development
Asia
China
China, People's Rep
GDP losses
MARKAL-MACRO model
Carbon emission
Emission ceiling
Reference scenario
Marginal abatement cost
Energy consumption
Distribution by sources
Power production
Pollution control
Pollution prevention
Carbon dioxide
Energy economy
Econometric model
Linear programming
Long term
Forecasting
Distribution by activities
Air pollution
Energy demand
Medium term
Electric power production
Dynamic programming
Cost analysis
Marginal cost
ISSN:0301-4215, 1873-6777
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:In this paper MARKAL-MACRO, an integrated energy-environment-economy model, is used to generate China’s reference scenario for future energy development and carbon emission through the year 2050. The results show that with great efforts on structure adjustment, energy efficiency improvement and energy substitution, China’s primary energy consumption is expected to be 4818 Mtce and carbon emission 2394 MtC by 2050 with annual decrease rate of 3% for the carbon intensity per GDP during the period 2000–2050. On the basis of this reference scenario, China’s marginal abatement cost curves of carbon for the year 2010, 2020 and 2030 are derived from the model, and the impacts of carbon emission abatement on GDP are also simulated. The results are compared with those from other sources. The research shows that the marginal abatement costs vary from 12US$/tC to 216US$/tC and the rates of GDP losses relative to reference range from 0.1% to 2.54% for the reduction rates between 5% and 45%. Both the marginal abatement costs and the rates of GDP losses further enlarge on condition that the maximum capacity of nuclear power is constrained to 240 GW or 160 GW by 2050. The paper concludes that China's costs of carbon abatement is rather high in case of carbon emissions are further cut beyond the reference scenario, and China's carbon abatement room is limited due to her coal-dominant energy resource characteristic. As economic development still remains the priority and per capita income as well as per capita carbon emission are far below the world average, it will be more realistic for China to make continuous contributions to combating global climate change by implementing sustainable development strategy domestically and playing an active role in the international carbon mitigation cooperation mechanisms rather than accepting a carbon emission ceiling.
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ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2003.10.012