Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosys...

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Veröffentlicht in:	Global change biology Jg. 19; H. 12; S. 3592 - 3606
Hauptverfasser:	Couce, Elena, Ridgwell, Andy, Hendy, Erica J.
Format:	Journal Article
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	Oxford Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.12.2013 Wiley-Blackwell BlackWell Publishing Ltd
Schlagworte:	Acidification Animal and plant ecology Animal, plant and microbial ecology Animals Anthozoa - physiology Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling Bioclimatology Biological and medical sciences Bleaching boosted regression trees Carbon dioxide Carbon Dioxide - metabolism Chemical oceanography Climate change Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change Coral reef ecosystems Coral Reefs Earth, ocean, space Exact sciences and technology External geophysics Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology General aspects General aspects. Techniques Geography Global Warming Habitats Hydrogen-Ion Concentration Marine ecosystems MaxEnt Maximum entropy Meteorology Methods and techniques (sampling, tagging, trapping, modelling...) Models, Theoretical Ocean acidification Ocean temperature Primary s Seawater - chemistry Surface temperature Synecology IS, Equatorial Pacific I, Indo-Pacific Warming ocean acidification boosted regression trees Acidification maximum entropy Coral reef Entropy Habitat suitability Envelope Decision tree Modeling Bioclimate Dynamical climatology Climate change global warming MaxEnt Ecosystem Global change coral reef ecosystems Ocean Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling
ISSN:	1354-1013, 1365-2486, 1365-2486
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Zusammenfassung:	Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature‐driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio‐diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo‐Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature‐driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40–70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered ‘marginal’ for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short‐term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate.
Bibliographie:	istex:93AE01439A3489780048B27B87E288358B00C744 ark:/67375/WNG-W1X78G1L-4 ArticleID:GCB12335 UK Ocean Acidification Research Program - No. NE/H017453/1 RCUK Academic Fellowship Data S1. Further details on the Bioclimatic Envelope Models. Details on model training, shallow water mask used in the study, variable contributions, and model performance on training data. Data S2. Extrapolating to novel climates. Details on the method used to extrapolate for data outside training range, and discussion on its impacts on projections and the regions affected. Data S3. Analysis of model agreement. Alternative model results for all figures presented in the main document, and discussion on agreement between 2070 projections by all four models. Royal Society Advanced Fellowship SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 14 ObjectType-Article-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	1354-1013 1365-2486 1365-2486
DOI:	10.1111/gcb.12335