Estimating a social cost of carbon for global energy consumption

Estimates of global economic damage caused by carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions can inform climate policy 1 – 3 . The social cost of carbon (SCC) quantifies these damages by characterizing how additional CO 2 emissions today impact future economic outcomes through altering the climate 4 – 6 . Previou...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature (London) Vol. 598; no. 7880; pp. 308 - 314
Main Authors: Rode, Ashwin, Carleton, Tamma, Delgado, Michael, Greenstone, Michael, Houser, Trevor, Hsiang, Solomon, Hultgren, Andrew, Jina, Amir, Kopp, Robert E., McCusker, Kelly E., Nath, Ishan, Rising, James, Yuan, Jiacan
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 14.10.2021
Nature Publishing Group
Subjects:
704/844/2739
704/844/843
706/4066/4068
Air Conditioning - economics
Air Conditioning - statistics & numerical data
Carbon Cycle
Carbon dioxide
Carbon Dioxide - economics
Carbon Dioxide - metabolism
Carbon dioxide emissions
Causes of
Climate
Climate change
Climate Change - economics
Climate Change - statistics & numerical data
Climate science
Climatic changes
Cost control
Econometrics
Economic aspects
Economics
Electricity
Electricity consumption
Emissions
Emissions (Pollution)
Energy consumption
Energy-Generating Resources - economics
Energy-Generating Resources - statistics & numerical data
Environmental aspects
Estimates
Expenditures
Forecasts and trends
GDP
Global economy
Global warming
Gross Domestic Product
Heating - economics
Heating - statistics & numerical data
History, 21st Century
Human Activities
Humanities and Social Sciences
Impact analysis
Impact damage
Local climates
multidisciplinary
Populations
Poverty - economics
Poverty - statistics & numerical data
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Social Sciences
Socioeconomic Factors
Surface temperature
Temperature
Tropical environments
United States
United States > US
ISSN:0028-0836, 1476-4687, 1476-4687
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Estimates of global economic damage caused by carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions can inform climate policy 1 – 3 . The social cost of carbon (SCC) quantifies these damages by characterizing how additional CO 2 emissions today impact future economic outcomes through altering the climate 4 – 6 . Previous estimates have suggested that large, warming-driven increases in energy expenditures could dominate the SCC 7 , 8 , but they rely on models 9 – 11 that are spatially coarse and not tightly linked to data 2 , 3 , 6 , 7 , 12 , 13 . Here we show that the release of one ton of CO 2 today is projected to reduce total future energy expenditures, with most estimates valued between −US$3 and −US$1, depending on discount rates. Our results are based on an architecture that integrates global data, econometrics and climate science to estimate local damages worldwide. Notably, we project that emerging economies in the tropics will dramatically increase electricity consumption owing to warming, which requires critical infrastructure planning. However, heating reductions in colder countries offset this increase globally. We estimate that 2099 annual global electricity consumption increases by about 4.5 exajoules (7 per cent of current global consumption) per one-degree-Celsius increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST), whereas direct consumption of other fuels declines by about 11.3 exajoules (7 per cent of current global consumption) per one-degree-Celsius increase in GMST. Our finding of net savings contradicts previous research 7 , 8 , because global data indicate that many populations will remain too poor for most of the twenty-first century to substantially increase energy consumption in response to warming. Importantly, damage estimates would differ if poorer populations were given greater weight 14 . Using global data, econometrics and climate science to estimate the damages induced by the emission of one ton of carbon dioxide, climate change is projected to increase electricity spending but reduce overall end-use energy expenditure.
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ISSN:0028-0836
1476-4687
1476-4687
DOI:10.1038/s41586-021-03883-8