Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we chara...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature communications Vol. 12; no. 1; pp. 1090 - 9
Main Authors: Nouvellet, Pierre, Bhatia, Sangeeta, Cori, Anne, Ainslie, Kylie E. C., Baguelin, Marc, Bhatt, Samir, Boonyasiri, Adhiratha, Brazeau, Nicholas F., Cattarino, Lorenzo, Cooper, Laura V., Coupland, Helen, Cucunuba, Zulma M., Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina, Dighe, Amy, Djaafara, Bimandra A., Dorigatti, Ilaria, Eales, Oliver D., van Elsland, Sabine L., Nascimento, Fabricia F., FitzJohn, Richard G., Gaythorpe, Katy A. M., Geidelberg, Lily, Green, William D., Hamlet, Arran, Hauck, Katharina, Hinsley, Wes, Imai, Natsuko, Jeffrey, Benjamin, Knock, Edward, Laydon, Daniel J., Lees, John A., Mangal, Tara, Mellan, Thomas A., Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma, Parag, Kris V., Pons-Salort, Margarita, Ragonnet-Cronin, Manon, Riley, Steven, Unwin, H. Juliette T., Verity, Robert, Vollmer, Michaela A. C., Volz, Erik, Walker, Patrick G. T., Walters, Caroline E., Wang, Haowei, Watson, Oliver J., Whittaker, Charles, Whittles, Lilith K., Xi, Xiaoyue, Ferguson, Neil M., Donnelly, Christl A.
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 17.02.2021
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Subjects:
631/114/2397
631/326/596/4130
692/308/174
692/699/255/2514
Algorithms
Communicable Disease Control - methods
Communicable Disease Control - statistics & numerical data
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - transmission
COVID-19 - virology
Decoupling
Disease control
Disease transmission
Global Health
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
Mobility
Models, Theoretical
multidisciplinary
Pandemics
Pandemics - prevention & control
Physical Distancing
Quarantine - methods
SARS-CoV-2 - isolation & purification
SARS-CoV-2 - physiology
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
Social distancing
ISSN:2041-1723, 2041-1723
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries. For the majority of countries, mobility explained a substantial proportion of the variation in transmissibility (median adjusted R-squared: 48%, interquartile range - IQR - across countries [27–77%]). Where a change in the relationship occurred, predictive ability decreased after the relaxation; from a median adjusted R-squared of 74% (IQR across countries [49–91%]) pre-relaxation, to a median adjusted R-squared of 30% (IQR across countries [12–48%]) post-relaxation. In countries with a clear relationship between mobility and transmission both before and after strict control measures were relaxed, mobility was associated with lower transmission rates after control measures were relaxed indicating that the beneficial effects of ongoing social distancing behaviours were substantial. Social distancing policies aiming to reduce COVID-19 transmission have been reflected in reductions in human mobility. Here, the authors show that reduced mobility is correlated with decreased transmission, but that this relationship weakened over time as social distancing measures were relaxed.
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ISSN:2041-1723
2041-1723
DOI:10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2