Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change

Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience) 1 . Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience 2 , yet little is known about how it i...

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Vydané v:	Nature (London) Ročník 608; číslo 7923; s. 534 - 539
Hlavní autori:	Forzieri, Giovanni, Dakos, Vasilis, McDowell, Nate G., Ramdane, Alkama, Cescatti, Alessandro
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	English
Vydavateľské údaje:	London Nature Publishing Group UK 18.08.2022 Nature Publishing Group
Predmet:	704/106 704/158/2165 Acclimatization Anthropogenic factors Aridity Biodiversity and Ecology Boreal forests Carbon Carbon dioxide Carbon Dioxide - metabolism Climate and vegetation Climate change Climate Change - history Climate Change - statistics & numerical data climate change ecology Climate effects climate sciences Climate variability Divergence Ecology, environment Ecosystems ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Fertilization Forest ecosystems Forestry Forests History, 21st Century Humanities and Social Sciences Life Sciences Machine Learning Models, Biological multidisciplinary Perturbation Productivity Resilience Satellite Imagery Science Science (multidisciplinary) Taiga Temperate forests Temperature Terrestrial ecosystems Time series Trees - growth & development Trees - metabolism Trends Vegetation Vegetation index Water - analysis Water - metabolism
ISSN:	0028-0836, 1476-4687, 1476-4687
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Shrnutí:	Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience) 1 . Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience 2 , yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to show how forest resilience, quantified in terms of critical slowing down indicators 3 – 5 , has changed during the period 2000–2020. We show that tropical, arid and temperate forests are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, probably related to increased water limitations and climate variability. By contrast, boreal forests show divergent local patterns with an average increasing trend in resilience, probably benefiting from warming and CO 2 fertilization, which may outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. These patterns emerge consistently in both managed and intact forests, corroborating the existence of common large-scale climate drivers. Reductions in resilience are statistically linked to abrupt declines in forest primary productivity, occurring in response to slow drifting towards a critical resilience threshold. Approximately 23% of intact undisturbed forests, corresponding to 3.32 Pg C of gross primary productivity, have already reached a critical threshold and are experiencing a further degradation in resilience. Together, these signals reveal a widespread decline in the capacity of forests to withstand perturbation that should be accounted for in the design of land-based mitigation and adaptation plans.
Bibliografia:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23 USDOE PNNL-SA-177011; PNNL-SA-178330 European Commission (EC) AC05-76RL01830
ISSN:	0028-0836 1476-4687 1476-4687
DOI:	10.1038/s41586-022-04959-9