Body mass index is the most useful predictive factor for the onset of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease : a community-based retrospective longitudinal cohort study

Background Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can progress to advanced liver disease and non-liver-related diseases. To prevent NAFLD onset, clinicians must be able to easily identify high-risk NAFLD patients so that intervention can begin at an earlier stage. We sought to identify the predict...

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Published in:Journal of gastroenterology Vol. 48; no. 3; pp. 413 - 422
Main Authors: Miyake, Teruki, Kumagi, Teru, Hirooka, Masashi, Furukawa, Shinya, Koizumi, Mitsuhito, Tokumoto, Yoshio, Ueda, Teruhisa, Yamamoto, Shin, Abe, Masanori, Kitai, Kohichiro, Hiasa, Yoichi, Matsuura, Bunzo, Onji, Morikazu
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Japan Springer Japan 01.03.2013
Springer
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects:
Abdominal Surgery
Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Analysis
Biliary Tract
Biomarkers - blood
Body Mass Index
Colorectal Surgery
Development and progression
Early Diagnosis
Fatty liver
Fatty Liver - diagnosis
Fatty Liver - epidemiology
Fatty Liver - etiology
Fatty Liver - physiopathology
Female
Gastroenterology
Hepatology
Humans
Japan - epidemiology
Longitudinal Studies
Male
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Metabolic disorders
Middle Aged
Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease
Original Article—Liver
Pancreas
Predictive factor
Prevention
Retrospective Studies
Risk Factors
Sex Factors
Surgical Oncology
Young Adult
Japan
Body mass index
Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease
Predictive factor
Metabolic disorders
ISSN:0944-1174, 1435-5922, 1435-5922
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Background Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can progress to advanced liver disease and non-liver-related diseases. To prevent NAFLD onset, clinicians must be able to easily identify high-risk NAFLD patients so that intervention can begin at an earlier stage. We sought to identify the predictive factors for NAFLD onset. Methods In a community-based, longitudinal design, the records of 6,403 Japanese subjects were reviewed to identify those meeting the criteria for NAFLD onset. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify predictive factors for NAFLD onset. The accuracy of different models was evaluated according to their areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves. Comparative risk analysis was performed using the Kaplan–Meier method. Results Multivariate analysis of 400 subjects who met the criteria for the onset of NAFLD during the observation period confirmed that body mass index (BMI) at baseline was the most useful predictive factor for NAFLD onset in both sexes. Cutoff levels of BMI for NAFLD onset were estimated at 23 kg/m 2 for men and 22.2 kg/m 2 for women. The cumulative onset rate of NAFLD was significantly higher in the high BMI group than in the low BMI group in both sexes ( P  < 0.001). Conclusion BMI was confirmed as the most useful predictive factor for NAFLD onset in both sexes; its cutoff levels were similar to those recommended by the World Health Organization for helping to prevent metabolic disease. An accurate BMI cutoff level will enable clinicians to identify subjects at risk for NAFLD onset.
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ISSN:0944-1174
1435-5922
1435-5922
DOI:10.1007/s00535-012-0650-8