On the association between weather variability and total and cause-specific mortality before and during industrialization in Sweden
While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies. To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and du...
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| Vydáno v: | Demographic research Ročník 35; s. 991 - 1010 |
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| Hlavní autoři: | , , , , |
| Médium: | Journal Article |
| Jazyk: | angličtina |
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Rostock
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
05.10.2016
Max Planck Institut für Demografische Forschung |
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| ISSN: | 1435-9871, 2363-7064, 1435-9871 |
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| Abstract | While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies. To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization. We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skellefteâ parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800-1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series approach for three separate periods, 1800-1859, 1860-1909, and 1910-1950. We found higher temperatures and higher amounts of precipitation to be associated with lower mortality both in the medium term (same month and two-months lag) and in the long run (lag of six months up to a year). Similar patterns were found for mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the effect of temperature and precipitation decreased over time. Higher temperature and precipitation amounts were associated with reduced death counts with a lag of up to 12 months. The decreased effect over time may be due to improvements in nutritional status, decreased infant deaths, and other changes in society that occurred in the course of the demographic and epidemiological transition. The study contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between weather and mortality and, in particular, historical weather-related mortality. |
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| AbstractList | BACKGROUND: While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies.
OBJECTIVE: To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization.
METHODS: We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skelleftea parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800-1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series approach for three separate periods, 1800-1859, 1860-1909, and 1910-1950.
RESULTS: We found higher temperatures and higher amounts of precipitation to be associated with lower mortality both in the medium term (same month and two-months lag) and in the long run (lag of six months up to a year). Similar patterns were found for mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the effect of temperature and precipitation decreased over time.
CONCLUSIONS: Higher temperature and precipitation amounts were associated with reduced death counts with a lag of up to 12 months. The decreased effect over time may be due to improvements in nutritional status, decreased infant deaths, and other changes in society that occurred in the course of the demographic and epidemiological transition.
CONTRIBUTION: The study contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between weather and mortality and, in particular, historical weather-related mortality. Background: While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies. Objective: To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization. Methods: We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skellefteå parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800-1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series approach for three separate periods, 1800−1859, 1860-1909, and 1910-1950. Results: We found higher temperatures and higher amounts of precipitation to be associated with lower mortality both in the medium term (same month and two-months lag) and in the long run (lag of six months up to a year). Similar patterns were found for mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the effect of temperature and precipitation decreased over time. Conclusions: Higher temperature and precipitation amounts were associated with reduced death counts with a lag of up to 12 months. The decreased effect over time may be due to improvements in nutritional status, decreased infant deaths, and other changes in society that occurred in the course of the demographic and epidemiological transition. Contribution: The study contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between weather and mortality and, in particular, historical weather-related mortality. While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies. To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization. We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skellefteà parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800-1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series approach for three separate periods, 1800-1859, 1860-1909, and 1910-1950. We found higher temperatures and higher amounts of precipitation to be associated with lower mortality both in the medium term (same month and two-months lag) and in the long run (lag of six months up to a year). Similar patterns were found for mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the effect of temperature and precipitation decreased over time. Higher temperature and precipitation amounts were associated with reduced death counts with a lag of up to 12 months. The decreased effect over time may be due to improvements in nutritional status, decreased infant deaths, and other changes in society that occurred in the course of the demographic and epidemiological transition. The study contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between weather and mortality and, in particular, historical weather-related mortality. While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies. To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization. We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skellefteâ parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800-1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series approach for three separate periods, 1800-1859, 1860-1909, and 1910-1950. We found higher temperatures and higher amounts of precipitation to be associated with lower mortality both in the medium term (same month and two-months lag) and in the long run (lag of six months up to a year). Similar patterns were found for mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the effect of temperature and precipitation decreased over time. Higher temperature and precipitation amounts were associated with reduced death counts with a lag of up to 12 months. The decreased effect over time may be due to improvements in nutritional status, decreased infant deaths, and other changes in society that occurred in the course of the demographic and epidemiological transition. The study contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between weather and mortality and, in particular, historical weather-related mortality. |
| Author | Hondula, Daniel Edvinsson, Sören Schumann, Barbara Rocklöv, Joacim Åström, Daniel Oudin |
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| CitedBy_id | crossref_primary_10_1016_j_envres_2020_110400 crossref_primary_10_5194_cp_21_185_2025 crossref_primary_10_1016_j_envres_2020_110535 crossref_primary_10_1371_journal_pone_0223538 crossref_primary_10_4054_DemRes_2017_37_45 crossref_primary_10_1080_16549716_2019_1623609 crossref_primary_10_1007_s11356_020_09822_w crossref_primary_10_3390_ijerph15010018 crossref_primary_10_1215_00703370_10970757 crossref_primary_10_5194_cp_20_137_2024 |
| Cites_doi | 10.1097/01.ede.0000434530.62353.0b 10.1073/pnas.1120177109 10.3390/ijerph110706940 10.1093/eurpub/ckn058 10.3384/hygiea.1403-8668.023153 10.1080/01615440.2014.913967 10.3402/gha.v6i0.20153 10.1289/ehp.100227 10.1201/9781420010404 10.1136/oem.2006.029017 10.1016/S1473-3099(09)70104-5 10.1002/joc.946 10.1073/pnas.1104268108 10.2307/1973349 10.1080/713779096 10.3390/cli3010100 10.1073/pnas.0710711104 10.2307/203063 10.1289/ehp.01109463 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19970615)17:7<667::AID-JOC115>3.0.CO;2-J 10.1136/oem.2010.058818 |
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| Copyright | 2016 Daniel Oudin Åström et al. Copyright Max Planck Institut für Demografische Forschung Jul-Dec 2016 |
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| SubjectTerms | 19th century 20th century Agricultural production Cardiovascular diseases cause-specific mortality Causes of death climate Climate change Death Deaths Demography Disease Epidemics Epidemiology Extreme weather Health risks Health Sciences Heart attacks Heat High temperature Hälsovetenskap Ice age Ice ages Industrial development Industrialization Infants Infectious diseases Medical and Health Sciences Medicin och hälsovetenskap Mortality Nutritional status Population Precipitation Preindustrial societies Rain Research Article Statistical analysis Studies Sweden Temperature Time series Weather Weather patterns weather variability |
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| Title | On the association between weather variability and total and cause-specific mortality before and during industrialization in Sweden |
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