On the association between weather variability and total and cause-specific mortality before and during industrialization in Sweden

While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies. To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and du...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Demographic research Vol. 35; pp. 991 - 1010
Main Authors: Åström, Daniel Oudin, Edvinsson, Sören, Hondula, Daniel, Rocklöv, Joacim, Schumann, Barbara
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Rostock Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research 05.10.2016
Max Planck Institut für Demografische Forschung
Subjects:
19th century
20th century
Agricultural production
Cardiovascular diseases
cause-specific mortality
Causes of death
climate
Climate change
Death
Deaths
Demography
Disease
Epidemics
Epidemiology
Extreme weather
Health risks
Health Sciences
Heart attacks
Heat
High temperature
Hälsovetenskap
Ice age
Ice ages
Industrial development
Industrialization
Infants
Infectious diseases
Medical and Health Sciences
Medicin och hälsovetenskap
Mortality
Nutritional status
Population
Precipitation
Preindustrial societies
Rain
Research Article
Statistical analysis
Studies
Sweden
Temperature
Time series
Weather
Weather patterns
weather variability
Sweden
ISSN:1435-9871, 2363-7064, 1435-9871
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:While there is ample evidence for health risks associated with heat and other extreme weather events today, little is known about the impact of weather patterns on population health in preindustrial societies. To investigate the impact of weather patterns on population health in Sweden before and during industrialization. We obtained records of monthly mortality and of monthly mean temperatures and precipitation for Skellefteâ parish, northern Sweden, for the period 1800-1950. The associations between monthly total mortality, as well as monthly mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases, and monthly mean temperature and cumulative precipitation were modelled using a time series approach for three separate periods, 1800-1859, 1860-1909, and 1910-1950. We found higher temperatures and higher amounts of precipitation to be associated with lower mortality both in the medium term (same month and two-months lag) and in the long run (lag of six months up to a year). Similar patterns were found for mortality due to infectious and cardiovascular diseases. Furthermore, the effect of temperature and precipitation decreased over time. Higher temperature and precipitation amounts were associated with reduced death counts with a lag of up to 12 months. The decreased effect over time may be due to improvements in nutritional status, decreased infant deaths, and other changes in society that occurred in the course of the demographic and epidemiological transition. The study contributes to a better understanding of the complex relationship between weather and mortality and, in particular, historical weather-related mortality.
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ISSN:1435-9871
2363-7064
1435-9871
DOI:10.4054/DemRes.2016.35.33