Projecting future crop productivity for global economic modeling

Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land‐use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two bio...

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Vydáno v:Agricultural economics Ročník 45; číslo 1; s. 37 - 50
Hlavní autoři: Müller, Christoph, Robertson, Richard D
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Malden Elsevier Science BV 01.01.2014
Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Wiley Subscription Services, Inc
Témata:
Agricultural land
Agricultural practices
Agricultural productivity
Carbon dioxide
climate
Climate change
Climate models
Crop modeling
Crop production
crops
econometric models
economic analysis
Economic models
Environmental assessment
Environmental impact
Environmental protection
Global economy
Growth models
land productivity
Land use
markets
Productivity
Q100
Q190
space and time
uncertainty
Z000
ISSN:0169-5150, 1574-0862
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Shrnutí:Assessments of climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land‐use patterns rely on quantification of climate change impacts on the spatial patterns of land productivity. We supply a set of climate impact scenarios on agricultural land productivity derived from two climate models and two biophysical crop growth models to account for some of the uncertainty inherent in climate and impact models. Aggregation in space and time leads to information losses that can determine climate change impacts on agricultural markets and land‐use patterns because often aggregation is across steep gradients from low to high impacts or from increases to decreases. The four climate change impact scenarios supplied here were designed to represent the most significant impacts (high emission scenario only, assumed ineffectiveness of carbon dioxide fertilization on agricultural yields, no adjustments in management) but are consistent with the assumption that changes in agricultural practices are covered in the economic models. Globally, production of individual crops decrease by 10–38% under these climate change scenarios, with large uncertainties in spatial patterns that are determined by both the uncertainty in climate projections and the choice of impact model. This uncertainty in climate impact on crop productivity needs to be considered by economic assessments of climate change.
Bibliografie:http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/agec.12088
FACCE MACSUR project - No. 031A103B
istex:17E235AA9AFD894B0E5E32CE373D288C8A7F0D58
British government
KULUNDA project - No. 01LL0905L
Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
ArticleID:AGEC12088
ark:/67375/WNG-N6WBM0TG-M
German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) - No. 01LS1201A
ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
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ISSN:0169-5150
1574-0862
DOI:10.1111/agec.12088