Dependence of hydropower energy generation on forests in the Amazon Basin at local and regional scales

Tropical rainforest regions have large hydropower generation potential that figures prominently in many nations' energy growth strategies. Feasibility studies of hydropower plants typically ignore the effect of future deforestation or assume that deforestation will have a positive effect on riv...

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Vydané v:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Ročník 110; číslo 23; s. 9601
Hlavní autori: Stickler, Claudia M, Coe, Michael T, Costa, Marcos H, Nepstad, Daniel C, McGrath, David G, Dias, Livia C P, Rodrigues, Hermann O, Soares-Filho, Britaldo S
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:English
Vydavateľské údaje: United States 04.06.2013
Predmet:
Brazil
Climate Change
Computer Simulation
Conservation of Natural Resources - statistics & numerical data
Models, Theoretical
Public Policy
Rain
Renewable Energy - statistics & numerical data
Rivers
Seasons
Trees
Brazil
forest policy
electricity
land-use planning
climate policy
climate change
ISSN:1091-6490, 1091-6490
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Popis
Shrnutí:Tropical rainforest regions have large hydropower generation potential that figures prominently in many nations' energy growth strategies. Feasibility studies of hydropower plants typically ignore the effect of future deforestation or assume that deforestation will have a positive effect on river discharge and energy generation resulting from declines in evapotranspiration (ET) associated with forest conversion. Forest loss can also reduce river discharge, however, by inhibiting rainfall. We used land use, hydrological, and climate models to examine the local "direct" effects (through changes in ET within the watershed) and the potential regional "indirect" effects (through changes in rainfall) of deforestation on river discharge and energy generation potential for the Belo Monte energy complex, one of the world's largest hydropower plants that is currently under construction on the Xingu River in the eastern Amazon. In the absence of indirect effects of deforestation, simulated deforestation of 20% and 40% within the Xingu River basin increased discharge by 4-8% and 10-12%, with similar increases in energy generation. When indirect effects were considered, deforestation of the Amazon region inhibited rainfall within the Xingu Basin, counterbalancing declines in ET and decreasing discharge by 6-36%. Under business-as-usual projections of forest loss for 2050 (40%), simulated power generation declined to only 25% of maximum plant output and 60% of the industry's own projections. Like other energy sources, hydropower plants present large social and environmental costs. Their reliability as energy sources, however, must take into account their dependence on forests.
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ISSN:1091-6490
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.1215331110