Do people make decisions under risk based on ignorance? An empirical test of the priority heuristic against cumulative prospect theory

Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig [Brandstätter, E., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R. (2006). The Priority Heuristic: Making choices without trade-offs. Psychological Review, 113(2), 409–432] put forward the priority heuristic (PH) as a fast and frugal heuristic for decisions under risk. Accord...

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Vydáno v:	Organizational behavior and human decision processes Ročník 107; číslo 1; s. 75 - 95
Hlavní autoři:	Glöckner, Andreas, Betsch, Tilmann
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Amsterdam Elsevier Inc 01.09.2008 Elsevier Elsevier Science Publishing Company, Inc
Edice:	Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Témata:	Biological and medical sciences Bounded rationality Cognition. Intelligence Cumulative prospect theory Decision latency Decision making Decision making models Decision making. Choice Decision strategy Decisions Expected utility Fast and frugal heuristics Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology Heuristic Heuristics Ignorance Individual behaviour Information Organizational behaviour Predictions Priorities Process tracing Prospect theory Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry Psychology. Psychophysiology Risk theory Risks Studies Variables Decision latency Fast and frugal heuristics Cumulative prospect theory Decision strategy Process tracing Bounded rationality Human Rational irrational Decision making Theory Heuristics Risk Experimental study Strategy
ISSN:	0749-5978, 1095-9920
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Abstract	Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig [Brandstätter, E., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R. (2006). The Priority Heuristic: Making choices without trade-offs. Psychological Review, 113(2), 409–432] put forward the priority heuristic (PH) as a fast and frugal heuristic for decisions under risk. According to the PH, individuals do not make trade-offs between gains and probabilities, as proposed by expected utility models such as cumulative prospect theory (CPT), but use information in a non-compensatory manner and ignore information. We conducted three studies to test the PH empirically by analyzing individual choice patterns, decision times and information search parameters in diagnostic decision tasks. Results on all three dependent variables conflict with the predictions of the PH and can be better explained by the CPT. The predictive accuracy of the PH was high for decision tasks in which the predictions align with the predictions of the CPT but very low for decision tasks in which this was not the case. The findings indicate that earlier results supporting the PH might have been caused by the selection of decision tasks that were not diagnostic for the PH as compared to CPT.
AbstractList	Brandstatter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig [Brandstatter, E., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R. (2006). The Priority Heuristic: Making choices without trade-offs. Psychological Review, 113(2), 409-432] put forward the priority heuristic (PH) as a fast and frugal heuristic for decisions under risk. According to the PH, individuals do not make trade-offs between gains and probabilities, as proposed by expected utility models such as cumulative prospect theory (CPT), but use information in a non-compensatory manner and ignore information. We conducted three studies to test the PH empirically by analyzing individual choice patterns, decision times and information search parameters in diagnostic decision tasks. Results on all three dependent variables conflict with the predictions of the PH and can be better explained by the CPT. The predictive accuracy of the PH was high for decision tasks in which the predictions align with the predictions of the CPT but very low for decision tasks in which this was not the case. The findings indicate that earlier results supporting the PH might have been caused by the selection of decision tasks that were not diagnostic for the PH as compared to CPT. [Copyright Academic Press.] Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig [Brandstätter, E., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R. (2006). The Priority Heuristic: Making choices without trade-offs. Psychological Review, 113(2), 409–432] put forward the priority heuristic (PH) as a fast and frugal heuristic for decisions under risk. According to the PH, individuals do not make trade-offs between gains and probabilities, as proposed by expected utility models such as cumulative prospect theory (CPT), but use information in a non-compensatory manner and ignore information. We conducted three studies to test the PH empirically by analyzing individual choice patterns, decision times and information search parameters in diagnostic decision tasks. Results on all three dependent variables conflict with the predictions of the PH and can be better explained by the CPT. The predictive accuracy of the PH was high for decision tasks in which the predictions align with the predictions of the CPT but very low for decision tasks in which this was not the case. The findings indicate that earlier results supporting the PH might have been caused by the selection of decision tasks that were not diagnostic for the PH as compared to CPT. Brandstatter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig [Brandstatter, E., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R. (2006). The Priority Heuristic: Making choices without trade-offs. Psychological Review, 113(2), 409-432] put forward the priority heuristic (PH) as a fast and frugal heuristic for decisions under risk. According to the PH, individuals do not make trade-offs between gains and probabilities, as proposed by expected utility models such as cumulative prospect theory (CPT), but use information in a non-compensatory manner and ignore information. We conducted three studies to test the PH empirically by analyzing individual choice patterns, decision times and information search parameters in diagnostic decision tasks. Results on all three dependent variables conflict with the predictions of the PH and can be better explained by the CPT. The predictive accuracy of the PH was high for decision tasks in which the predictions align with the predictions of the CPT but very low for decision tasks in which this was not the case. The findings indicate that earlier results supporting the PH might have been caused by the selection of decision tasks that were not diagnostic for the PH as compared to CPT. All rights reserved, Elsevier Brandstatter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig [Brandstatter, E., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R. (2006). The Priority Heuristic: Making choices without trade-offs. Psychological Review, 113(2), 409-432] put forward the priority heuristic (PH) as a fast and frugal heuristic for decisions under risk. According to the PH, individuals do not make trade-offs between gains and probabilities, as proposed by expected utility models such as cumulative prospect theory (CPT), but use information in a non-compensatory manner and ignore information. We conducted three studies to test the PH empirically by analyzing individual choice patterns, decision times and information search parameters in diagnostic decision tasks. Results on all three dependent variables conflict with the predictions of the PH and can be better explained by the CPT. The predictive accuracy of the PH was high for decision tasks in which the predictions align with the predictions of the CPT but very low for decision tasks in which this was not the case. The findings indicate that earlier results supporting the PH might have been caused by the selection of decision tasks that were not diagnostic for the PH as compared to CPT. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
Author	Glöckner, Andreas Betsch, Tilmann
Author_xml	– sequence: 1 givenname: Andreas surname: Glöckner fullname: Glöckner, Andreas email: gloeckner@coll.mpg.de organization: Research Group Intuitive Experts, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods, Kurt-Schumacher Str. 10, D-53113 Bonn, Germany – sequence: 2 givenname: Tilmann surname: Betsch fullname: Betsch, Tilmann organization: Department of Psychology, University of Erfurt, Germany
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Keywords	Decision latency Fast and frugal heuristics Cumulative prospect theory Decision strategy Process tracing Bounded rationality Human Rational irrational Decision making Theory Heuristics Risk Experimental study Strategy
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SubjectTerms	Biological and medical sciences Bounded rationality Cognition. Intelligence Cumulative prospect theory Decision latency Decision making Decision making models Decision making. Choice Decision strategy Decisions Expected utility Fast and frugal heuristics Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology Heuristic Heuristics Ignorance Individual behaviour Information Organizational behaviour Predictions Priorities Process tracing Prospect theory Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry Psychology. Psychophysiology Risk theory Risks Studies Variables
Title	Do people make decisions under risk based on ignorance? An empirical test of the priority heuristic against cumulative prospect theory
URI	https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2008.02.003 http://econpapers.repec.org/article/eeejobhdp/v_3a107_3ay_3a2008_3ai_3a1_3ap_3a75-95.htm https://www.proquest.com/docview/223180478 https://www.proquest.com/docview/37022025 https://www.proquest.com/docview/57279096
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