Analysis of economic forecasting in the post-epidemic era: evidence from China

This paper presents a predictive analysis of the Chinese economy in the post-epidemic era. Five major public health emergencies historically similar to the COVID-19 epidemic are used as the control group, and a fuzzy mathematical model is applied to forecast and analyze China’s economy after the COV...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Scientific reports Vol. 13; no. 1; pp. 2696 - 9
Main Author: Li, Xin
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 15.02.2023
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Subjects:
639/705/1041
639/705/531
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Economics
Employment
Epidemics
Exports
Humanities and Social Sciences
Imports
International trade
Mathematical models
multidisciplinary
Public health
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
ISSN:2045-2322, 2045-2322
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:This paper presents a predictive analysis of the Chinese economy in the post-epidemic era. Five major public health emergencies historically similar to the COVID-19 epidemic are used as the control group, and a fuzzy mathematical model is applied to forecast and analyze China’s economy after the COVID-19 epidemic. The forecast results show that China’s overall economy will have recovered to the pre-epidemic level in about 1 year, with the fastest recovery in individual economic indicators, followed by government final consumption and imports, then CPI, fiscal revenue, exports and money supply, and the slowest recovery in employment. Finally, a combination of all the parties makes policies and recommendations for China’s economic and social development in the post-epidemic era.
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ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-19011-z