A pre-symptomatic incubation model for precision strategies of screening, quarantine, and isolation based on imported COVID-19 cases in Taiwan

Facing the emerging COVID viral variants and the uneven distribution of vaccine worldwide, imported pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases play a pivotal role in border control strategies. A stochastic disease process and computer simulation experiments with Bayesian underpinning was therefore developed to...

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Veröffentlicht in:Scientific reports Jg. 12; H. 1; S. 6053 - 11
Hauptverfasser: Jen, Grace Hsiao-Hsuan, Yen, Amy Ming-Fang, Hsu, Chen-Yang, Chen, Sam Li-Sheng, Chen, Tony Hsiu-Hsi
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: London Nature Publishing Group UK 11.04.2022
Nature Publishing Group
Nature Portfolio
Schlagworte:
639/705
692/699
Bayes Theorem
Bayesian analysis
Border stations
Computer Simulation
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 - diagnosis
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - prevention & control
COVID-19 vaccines
Humanities and Social Sciences
Humans
multidisciplinary
Polymerase chain reaction
Quarantine
SARS-CoV-2
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Stochastic processes
Taiwan - epidemiology
Vaccines
Taiwan
ISSN:2045-2322, 2045-2322
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Zusammenfassung:Facing the emerging COVID viral variants and the uneven distribution of vaccine worldwide, imported pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases play a pivotal role in border control strategies. A stochastic disease process and computer simulation experiments with Bayesian underpinning was therefore developed to model pre-symptomatic disease progression during incubation period on which we were based to provide precision strategies for containing the resultant epidemic caused by imported COVID-19 cases. We then applied the proposed model to data on 1051 imported COVID-19 cases among inbound passengers to Taiwan between March 2020 and April 2021. The overall daily rate (per 100,000) of pre-symptomatic COVID-19 cases was estimated as 106 (95% credible interval (CrI): 95–117) in March–June 2020, fell to 37 (95% CrI: 28–47) in July–September 2020 (p < 0.0001), resurged to 141 (95% CrI: 118–164) in October–December 2020 (p < 0.0001), and declined to 90 (95% CrI: 73–108) in January–April 2021 (p = 0.0004). Given the median dwelling time, over 82% cases would progress from pre-symptomatic to symptomatic phase in 5-day quarantine. The time required for quarantine given two real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests depends on the risk of departing countries, testing and quarantine strategies, and whether the passengers have vaccine jabs. Our proposed four-compartment stochastic process and computer simulation experiments design underpinning Bayesian MCMC algorithm facilitated the development of precision strategies for imported COVID-19 cases.
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ISSN:2045-2322
2045-2322
DOI:10.1038/s41598-022-09863-w