Interdicting a Nuclear-Weapons Project

A "proliferator" seeks to complete a first small batch of fission weapons as quickly as possible, whereas an "interdictor" wishes to delay that completion for as long as possible. We develop and solve a max-min model that identifies resource-limited interdiction actions that maxi...

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Vydáno v:Operations research Ročník 57; číslo 4; s. 866 - 877
Hlavní autoři: Brown, Gerald G, Carlyle, W. Matthew, Harney, Robert C, Skroch, Eric M, Wood, R. Kevin
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Hanover, MD INFORMS 01.07.2009
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
Témata:
Algorithms
Applied sciences
Arms control & disarmament
Budget constraints
Budgetary resources
CPM
Critical path
defense
Defense industry
Economic diplomacy
Exact sciences and technology
foreign policy
Furnaces
government
integer
Integer programming
Integers
linear
Mathematical programming
military
Modeling
Nuclear weapons
Operational research and scientific management
Operational research. Management science
Operations research
Production management
programming
Project management
Software
Studies
targeting
Uranium
Weapons
United States
United States > US
Enrichment
Targeting
Maximin problem
Project management
programming: integer, linear
project management: CPM
Linear programming
government: defense, foreign policy
Economic sciences
Modeling
Weapon
Optimization
Military application
Nuclear weapon
Case study
Government policies
Integer programming
military: targeting
Delay time
Critical path method
Cascade
Delayed time
Completion time
ISSN:0030-364X, 1526-5463
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Popis
Shrnutí:A "proliferator" seeks to complete a first small batch of fission weapons as quickly as possible, whereas an "interdictor" wishes to delay that completion for as long as possible. We develop and solve a max-min model that identifies resource-limited interdiction actions that maximally delay completion time of the proliferator's weapons project, given that the proliferator will observe any such actions and adjust his plans to minimize that time. The model incorporates a detailed project-management (critical path method) submodel, and standard optimization software solves the model in a few minutes on a personal computer. We exploit off-the-shelf project-management software to manage a database, control the optimization, and display results. Using a range of levels for interdiction effort, we analyze a published case study that models three alternate uranium-enrichment technologies. The task of "cascade loading" appears in all technologies and turns out to be an inherent fragility for the proliferator at all levels of interdiction effort. Such insights enable policy makers to quantify the effects of interdiction options at their disposal, be they diplomatic, economic, or military.
Bibliografie:ObjectType-Case Study-3
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-1
content type line 14
ObjectType-Report-2
ISSN:0030-364X
1526-5463
DOI:10.1287/opre.1080.0643