Unraveling El Niño's impact on the East Asian Monsoon and Yangtze River summer flooding

Strong El Niño events are followed by massive summer monsoon flooding over the Yangtze River basin (YRB), home to about a third of the population in China. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides the main source of seasonal climate predictability for many parts of the Earth, the me...

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Vydáno v:	Geophysical research letters Ročník 43; číslo 21; s. 11,375 - 11,382
Hlavní autoři:	Zhang, Wenjun, Jin, Fei‐Fei, Stuecker, Malte F., Wittenberg, Andrew T., Timmermann, Axel, Ren, Hong‐Li, Kug, Jong‐Seong, Cai, Wenju, Cane, Mark
Médium:	Journal Article
Jazyk:	angličtina
Vydáno:	Washington John Wiley & Sons, Inc 16.11.2016 American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Témata:	Annual variations Anomalies Asian Atmospheric precipitations Climate Complexity Earth East Asian monsoon El Nino El Nino events El Nino phenomena El Nino-Southern Oscillation event ENSO Flavors Flood predictions Flooding Floods Meteorology monsoon Monsoon floods Monsoons Ocean currents Ocean temperature Precipitation Precipitation anomalies River basins Rivers Robustness Sea surface Sea surface temperature Sea surface temperature anomalies Southern Oscillation Summer Summer monsoon Surface temperature Temperature anomalies Temperature effects tropical climate Wind Winter Yangtze River East Asia China China, People's Rep., Changjiang R
ISSN:	0094-8276, 1944-8007
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Shrnutí:	Strong El Niño events are followed by massive summer monsoon flooding over the Yangtze River basin (YRB), home to about a third of the population in China. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides the main source of seasonal climate predictability for many parts of the Earth, the mechanisms of its connection to the East Asian monsoon remain largely elusive. For instance, the traditional Niño3.4 ENSO index only captures precipitation anomalies over East Asia in boreal winter but not during the summer. Here we show that there exists a robust year‐round and predictable relationship between ENSO and the Asian monsoon. This connection is revealed by combining equatorial (Niño3.4) and off‐equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (Niño‐A index) into a new metric that captures ENSO's various aspects, such as its interaction with the annual cycle and its different flavors. This extended view of ENSO complexity improves predictability of YRB summer flooding events. Key Points ENSO's complex temporal and spatial diversities can be well captured when combining equatorial and off‐equatorial SSTAs to a new metric This metric captures a robust year‐round ENSO/monsoon relationship and the Yangtze River basin summer flooding events The ENSO complexity captured by the metric can be predicted several months in advance, thereby providing monsoon predictability
Bibliografie:	ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23 USDOE DE‐SC000511
ISSN:	0094-8276 1944-8007
DOI:	10.1002/2016GL071190