The nonlinear feedback dynamics of asymmetric political polarization

Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymme...

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Vydáno v:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Ročník 118; číslo 50
Hlavní autoři: Leonard, Naomi Ehrich, Lipsitz, Keena, Bizyaeva, Anastasia, Franci, Alessio, Lelkes, Yphtach
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: United States 14.12.2021
Témata:
public opinion
bifurcations
political elites
political polarization
nonlinear dynamics
ISSN:1091-6490, 1091-6490
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Shrnutí:Using a general model of opinion dynamics, we conduct a systematic investigation of key mechanisms driving elite polarization in the United States. We demonstrate that the self-reinforcing nature of elite-level processes can explain this polarization, with voter preferences accounting for its asymmetric nature. Our analysis suggests that subtle differences in the frequency and amplitude with which public opinion shifts left and right over time may have a differential effect on the self-reinforcing processes of elites, causing Republicans to polarize more quickly than Democrats. We find that as self-reinforcement approaches a critical threshold, polarization speeds up. Republicans appear to have crossed that threshold while Democrats are currently approaching it.
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ISSN:1091-6490
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2102149118