The integration of long-term marginal electricity supply mixes in the ecoinvent consequential database version 3.4 and examination of modeling choices

Purpose The long-term marginal electricity supply mixes of 40 countries were generated and integrated into version 3.4 of the ecoinvent consequential database. The total electricity production originating from these countries accounts for 77% of the current global electricity generation. The goal of...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The international journal of life cycle assessment Vol. 24; no. 8; pp. 1409 - 1428
Main Authors: Vandepaer, Laurent, Treyer, Karin, Mutel, Chris, Bauer, Christian, Amor, Ben
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.08.2019
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects:
Composition
Earth and Environmental Science
Electric power generation
Electricity
Electricity consumption
electricity generation
Energy
Energy consumption
Environment
Environmental Chemistry
Environmental Economics
Environmental Engineering/Biotechnology
Environmental impact
Lci Methodology and Databases
Life cycle analysis
life cycle assessment
Life cycle engineering
Life cycles
Mathematical models
Methodology
Mixtures
Natural gas
Parameters
Power plants
Renewable energy sources
CLCA
Long-term marginal electricity supply mix
Ecoinvent
Life cycle inventory (LCI) database
ISSN:0948-3349, 1614-7502
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Purpose The long-term marginal electricity supply mixes of 40 countries were generated and integrated into version 3.4 of the ecoinvent consequential database. The total electricity production originating from these countries accounts for 77% of the current global electricity generation. The goal of this article is to provide an overview of the methodology used to calculate the marginal mixes and to evaluate the influence of key parameters and methodological choices on the results. Methods The marginal mixes are based on public energy projections from national and international authorities and reflect the accumulated effect of changes in demand for electricity on the installation and operation of new-generation capacities. These newly generated marginal mixes are first examined in terms of their compositions and environmental impacts. They are then compared to several sets of alternative electricity supply mixes calculated using different methodological choices or data sources. Results and discussion Renewable energy sources (RES) as well as natural gas power plants show the highest growth rates and usually dominate the marginal mixes. Nevertheless, important variations may exist between the marginal mixes of the different countries in terms of their technological compositions and environmental impacts. The examination of the modeling choices reveals substantial variations between the marginal mixes integrated into the ecoinvent consequential database version 3.4 and marginal mixes generated using alternative modeling options. These different modeling possibilities include changes in the methodology, temporal parameters, and the underlying energy scenarios. Furthermore, in most of the impact categories, average (i.e., attributional) mixes cause higher impact scores than marginal mixes due to higher shares of RES in marginal mixes. Conclusions Accurate and consistent data for electricity supply is integrated into a consequential database providing a strong basis for the development of consequential Life Cycle Assessments. The methodology adopted in this version of the database eliminates several shortcomings from the previous approach which led to unrealistic marginal mixes in several countries. The use of energy scenarios allows the evolution of the electricity system to be considered within the definition of the marginal mixes. The modeling choices behind the electricity marginal mix should be adjusted to the goal and scope of individual studies and their influence on the results evaluated.
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ISSN:0948-3349
1614-7502
DOI:10.1007/s11367-018-1571-4