Estimation of origin-destination trip rates in Leicester

The road system in region RA of Leicester has vehicle detectors embedded in many of the network's road links. Vehicle counts from these detectors can provide transportation researchers with a rich source of data. However, for many projects it is necessary for researchers to have an estimate of...

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Veröffentlicht in:Applied statistics Jg. 50; H. 4; S. 423 - 433
1. Verfasser: Hazelton, Martin L.
Format: Journal Article
Sprache:Englisch
Veröffentlicht: Oxford, UK and Boston, USA Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2001
Blackwell Publishers
Blackwell
Royal Statistical Society
Schriftenreihe:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C
Schlagworte:
Applications
Approximation
Bayesian inference
Biology, psychology, social sciences
Commuting
England
Estimation
Exact sciences and technology
Hastings-Metropolis algorithm
Leicester
Mathematical vectors
Mathematics
Measurement
Measurement error
Monte Carlo integration
Monte Carlo simulation
Origin-destination matrix
Probability and statistics
Probability theory and stochastic processes
Roads
Route choice
Sciences and techniques of general use
Special processes (renewal theory, markov renewal processes, semi-markov processes, statistical mechanics type models, applications)
Standard deviation
Statistical methods
Statistics
Traffic counting
Traffic estimation
Traffic flow
Transport
Travel
United Kingdom
Vehicles
Bayes estimation
Metropolis algorithm
Prior information
Approximation
Numerical integration
Error estimation
Overdispersion
Metropolis Hastings algorithm
Statistical method
Model specification
Observation data
Environment
Sample survey
Measurement error
Posterior distribution
ISSN:0035-9254, 1467-9876
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Zusammenfassung:The road system in region RA of Leicester has vehicle detectors embedded in many of the network's road links. Vehicle counts from these detectors can provide transportation researchers with a rich source of data. However, for many projects it is necessary for researchers to have an estimate of origin-to-destination vehicle flow rates. Obtaining such estimates from data observed on individual road links is a non-trivial statistical problem, made more difficult in the present context by non-negligible measurement errors in the vehicle counts collected. The paper uses road link traffic count data from April 1994 to estimate the origin-destination flow rates for region RA. A model for the error prone traffic counts is developed, but the resulting likelihood is not available in closed form. Nevertheless, it can be smoothly approximated by using Monte Carlo integration. The approximate likelihood is combined with prior information from a May 1991 survey in a Bayesian framework. The posterior is explored using the Hastings-Metropolis algorithm, since its normalizing constant is not available. Preliminary findings suggest that the data are overdispersed according to the original model. Results for a revised model indicate that a degree of overdispersion exists, but that the estimates of origin-destination flow rates are quite insensitive to the change in model specification.
Bibliographie:istex:5A559884187862840BC66C1E5865806ACAFAB5F0
ark:/67375/WNG-QDG4081N-R
ArticleID:RSSC245
ObjectType-Article-2
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-1
content type line 23
ISSN:0035-9254
1467-9876
DOI:10.1111/1467-9876.00245