Update of the trauma risk adjustment model of the TraumaRegister DGU™: the Revised Injury Severity Classification, version II

Introduction The TraumaRegister DGU™ (TR-DGU) has used the Revised Injury Severity Classification (RISC) score for outcome adjustment since 2003. In recent years, however, the observed mortality rate has fallen to about 2% below the prognosis, and it was felt that further prognostic factors, like pu...

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Published in:Critical care (London, England) Vol. 18; no. 5; p. 476
Main Authors: Lefering, Rolf, Huber-Wagner, Stefan, Nienaber, Ulrike, Maegele, Marc, Bouillon, Bertil
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: London BioMed Central 05.09.2014
BioMed Central Ltd
Subjects:
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
Analysis
Critical Care Medicine
Emergency Medicine
Female
Head injuries
Humans
Injury Severity Score
Intensive
Male
Medicine
Medicine & Public Health
Middle Aged
Models, Theoretical
Mortality - trends
Registries - classification
Risk Factors
Wounds and Injuries - classification
Wounds and Injuries - diagnosis
Wounds and Injuries - mortality
Revise Trauma Score
Pupil Size
Abbreviate Injury Scale
Revise Injury Severity Classification
Injury Severity Score
ISSN:1364-8535, 1466-609X, 1364-8535, 1466-609X
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Introduction The TraumaRegister DGU™ (TR-DGU) has used the Revised Injury Severity Classification (RISC) score for outcome adjustment since 2003. In recent years, however, the observed mortality rate has fallen to about 2% below the prognosis, and it was felt that further prognostic factors, like pupil size and reaction, should be included as well. Finally, an increasing number of cases did not receive a RISC prognosis due to the missing values. Therefore, there was a need for an updated model for risk of death prediction in severely injured patients to be developed and validated using the most recent data. Methods The TR-DGU has been collecting data from severely injured patients since 1993. All injuries are coded according to the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS, version 2008). Severely injured patients from Europe (ISS ≥4) documented between 2010 and 2011 were selected for developing the new score (n = 30,866), and 21,918 patients from 2012 were used for validation. Age and injury codes were required, and transferred patients were excluded. Logistic regression analysis was applied with hospital mortality as the dependent variable. Results were evaluated in terms of discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC), precision (observed versus predicted mortality), and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic). Results The mean age of the development population was 47.3 years; 71.6% were males, and the average ISS was 19.3 points. Hospital mortality rate was 11.5% in this group. The new RISC II model consists of the following predictors: worst and second-worst injury (AIS severity level), head injury, age, sex, pupil reactivity and size, pre-injury health status, blood pressure, acidosis (base deficit), coagulation, haemoglobin, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Missing values are included as a separate category for every variable. In the development and the validation dataset, the new RISC II outperformed the original RISC score, for example AUC in the development dataset 0.953 versus 0.939. Conclusions The updated RISC II prognostic score has several advantages over the previous RISC model. Discrimination, precision and calibration are improved, and patients with partial missing values could now be included. Results were confirmed in a validation dataset.
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ISSN:1364-8535
1466-609X
1364-8535
1466-609X
DOI:10.1186/s13054-014-0476-2