An identity crisis? Examining IMF financial programming

The IMF uses its well-known “financial programming” model to derive monetary and fiscal programs to achieve the desired macroeconomic targets in countries undergoing crises or receiving debt relief. This paper considers under what conditions financial programming would work best, and then tests thos...

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Vydáno v:World development Ročník 34; číslo 6; s. 964 - 980
Hlavní autor: Easterly, William
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2006
Elsevier
Pergamon Press Inc
Edice:World Development
Témata:
budget deficits
Debt cancellation
Developing countries
Economic crisis
Economic development
Economic theory
Forecasting
Identity
Identity crisis
inflation
International aspects
International monetary fund
International relief
LDCs
macroeconomic stabilization
Macroeconomics
Poverty relief
Studies
international monetary fund
developing countries
inflation
budget deficits
macroeconomic stabilization
ISSN:0305-750X, 1873-5991
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Shrnutí:The IMF uses its well-known “financial programming” model to derive monetary and fiscal programs to achieve the desired macroeconomic targets in countries undergoing crises or receiving debt relief. This paper considers under what conditions financial programming would work best, and then tests those conditions in the data. The key restrictions of financial programming are assumptions about exogeneity of some components of identities with respect to others, and the assumption of stable and “reasonable” parameters for some very simple behavioral relationships. In at least the literal applications of the framework, financial programming does not do well in forecasting the target variables, even when some components of the identity are known with certainty.
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ISSN:0305-750X
1873-5991
DOI:10.1016/j.worlddev.2005.11.010