Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system

The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern 1 – 3 . For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented str...

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Published in:Nature (London) Vol. 626; no. 7999; pp. 555 - 564
Main Authors: Flores, Bernardo M., Montoya, Encarni, Sakschewski, Boris, Nascimento, Nathália, Staal, Arie, Betts, Richard A., Levis, Carolina, Lapola, David M., Esquível-Muelbert, Adriane, Jakovac, Catarina, Nobre, Carlos A., Oliveira, Rafael S., Borma, Laura S., Nian, Da, Boers, Niklas, Hecht, Susanna B., ter Steege, Hans, Arieira, Julia, Lucas, Isabella L., Berenguer, Erika, Marengo, José A., Gatti, Luciana V., Mattos, Caio R. C., Hirota, Marina
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 15.02.2024
Nature Publishing Group
Subjects:
21st century
631/158/2458
704/106/694/1108
704/158/2445
704/844/685
Analysis
Anthropocene
Biodiversity
Carbon
Climate change
Climate variability
Deforestation
Disturbances
Drought
Droughts - statistics & numerical data
Dry season
Ecosystem resilience
Ecosystems
Emissions
Environmental conditions
Environmental Restoration and Remediation - trends
Extreme drought
Feedback
Forests
Global Warming - prevention & control
Global Warming - statistics & numerical data
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gases
Humanities and Social Sciences
multidisciplinary
Native peoples
Rain
Regional climates
Regions
Resilience
Science
Science (multidisciplinary)
Spatial data
Trees - growth & development
Uncertainty
Water stress
Wildfires - statistics & numerical data
ISSN:0028-0836, 1476-4687, 1476-4687
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:The possibility that the Amazon forest system could soon reach a tipping point, inducing large-scale collapse, has raised global concern 1 – 3 . For 65 million years, Amazonian forests remained relatively resilient to climatic variability. Now, the region is increasingly exposed to unprecedented stress from warming temperatures, extreme droughts, deforestation and fires, even in central and remote parts of the system 1 . Long existing feedbacks between the forest and environmental conditions are being replaced by novel feedbacks that modify ecosystem resilience, increasing the risk of critical transition. Here we analyse existing evidence for five major drivers of water stress on Amazonian forests, as well as potential critical thresholds of those drivers that, if crossed, could trigger local, regional or even biome-wide forest collapse. By combining spatial information on various disturbances, we estimate that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances that may trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions and potentially exacerbate regional climate change. Using examples of disturbed forests across the Amazon, we identify the three most plausible ecosystem trajectories, involving different feedbacks and environmental conditions. We discuss how the inherent complexity of the Amazon adds uncertainty about future dynamics, but also reveals opportunities for action. Keeping the Amazon forest resilient in the Anthropocene will depend on a combination of local efforts to end deforestation and degradation and to expand restoration, with global efforts to stop greenhouse gas emissions. Analyses of drivers of water stress are used to predict likely trajectories of the Amazon forest system and suggests potential actions that could prevent system collapse.
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ISSN:0028-0836
1476-4687
1476-4687
DOI:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0