Linking statistical and hydrodynamic modeling for compound flood hazard assessment in tidal channels and estuaries

•Compound flood hazard levels computed for tidal channels or estuaries.•Bivariate statistical and hydrodynamic modeling is linked.•Spatially distributed flood hazard levels computed for return period T.•Method accounts for statistical and physical compounding effects. A method to link bivariate stat...

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Vydané v:Advances in water resources Ročník 128; s. 28 - 38
Hlavní autori: Moftakhari, Hamed, Schubert, Jochen E., AghaKouchak, Amir, Matthew, Richard A., Sanders, Brett F.
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:English
Vydavateľské údaje: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2019
Elsevier Science Ltd
Predmet:
Bivariate analysis
Bivariate statistical analysis
Channels
Coastal flood hazards
Compound flooding
Estuaries
Flood control
Flood hazards
Floods
Hazard assessment
hazard characterization
Hazards
Hydrodynamic modeling
Hydrodynamic models
Hydrodynamics
hydrologic models
Mathematical models
Modelling
probability
Probability theory
River discharge
Statistical analysis
Statistical methods
Tidal inlets
Compound flooding
Hydrodynamic modeling
Bivariate statistical analysis
Coastal flood hazards
ISSN:0309-1708, 1872-9657
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Popis
Shrnutí:•Compound flood hazard levels computed for tidal channels or estuaries.•Bivariate statistical and hydrodynamic modeling is linked.•Spatially distributed flood hazard levels computed for return period T.•Method accounts for statistical and physical compounding effects. A method to link bivariate statistical analysis and hydrodynamic modeling for flood hazard estimation in tidal channels and estuaries is presented and discussed for the general case where flood hazards are linked to upstream riverine discharge Q and downstream ocean level, H. Using a bivariate approach, there are many possible combinations of Q and H that jointly reflect a specific return period, T, raising questions about the best choice as boundary forcing in a hydrodynamic model. We show, first of all, how possible Q and H values depend on whether the definition of T corresponds to the probability of exceedance of “H OR Q” or “H AND Q”. We also show that flood hazards defined by “OR” return periods are more conservative than “AND” return periods. Finally, we introduce a new composite water surface profile to represent the spatially distributed hazard for return period T. The composite profile synthesizes hydrodynamic model results from the “AND” hazard scenario and two scenarios based on traditional univariate analysis, a “Marginal Q” scenario and a “Marginal H” scenario.
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ISSN:0309-1708
1872-9657
DOI:10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.04.009