Evaluation of renewable power sources using a fuzzy MCDM based on cumulative prospect theory: A case in China

Under the global implementation of low-carbon economy, the development of renewable energy becomes an important way of energy saving and emission reduction. Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques are gaining popularity in renewable power sources (RPS) evaluation since this process involves...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy (Oxford) Vol. 147; pp. 1227 - 1239
Main Authors: Wu, Yunna, Xu, Chuanbo, Zhang, Ting
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 15.03.2018
Elsevier BV
Subjects:
case studies
China
Cumulative prospect theory
Decision making
Decision theory
Emissions control
Energy conservation
Feasibility studies
Fuzzy set theory
Fuzzy sets
Investment
Investments
Investors
mathematical theory
Multi-criteria decision-making
Parameter sensitivity
Photovoltaic cells
Power
Power sources
Preferences
Renewable energy
renewable energy sources
Renewable power sources
risk
Set theory
Solar cells
Studies
China
Fuzzy set theory
Cumulative prospect theory
Multi-criteria decision-making
Renewable power sources
ISSN:0360-5442, 1873-6785
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Under the global implementation of low-carbon economy, the development of renewable energy becomes an important way of energy saving and emission reduction. Multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques are gaining popularity in renewable power sources (RPS) evaluation since this process involves many conflicting criteria. Classical MCDM techniques assume that decisions are conducted in a deterministic environment and decision-makers (DMs) are completely rational while facing with investment risks. However, these hypotheses are not supported in the RPS selection. Fortunately, fuzzy set theory enables to cope with vagueness of evaluations in decision-making process, and cumulative prospect theory can reflect the risk preference of DMs and describe the actual behavior of them. Therefore, in this paper, a fuzzy MCDM technique based on cumulative prospect theory is proposed for selecting the most appropriate RPS in China. A case study in China is carried out to illustrate the rationality and feasibility of the proposed method. The results show that the solar PV is determined to be the best one in China, but the optimal alternative is sensitive to the prospect parameters. This research provides insightful information for the public investors with different risk preferences to evaluate the RPS and select the most appropriate one under uncertain environment. •A comprehensive criteria system for RPS evaluation is established.•TFNs are used to evaluate the criteria value to depict the uncertainty.•AHP is applied to obtain the weights of criteria and sub-criteria.•Cumulative prospect theory is employed to rank the alternatives.•A case study is proposed to illustrate the rationality of the proposed method.
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ISSN:0360-5442
1873-6785
DOI:10.1016/j.energy.2018.01.115