Opinion: the use of natural hazard modeling for decision making under uncertainty

Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural haz...

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Published in:Forest ecosystems Vol. 2; no. 1; pp. 1 - 142
Main Authors: Calkin, David E, Mentis, Mike
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Beijing Beijing Forestry University 23.04.2015
Elsevier Limited
Forestry Sciences Laboratory, US Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, 800 East Beckwith, Missoula, MT 59801, USA%Business&the environment, Postnet Suite 10102, Private Bag X7005, Hil crest 3650, South Africa
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd
Subjects:
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Decision making
Ecology
Ecosystems
Environmental modeling
Forestry
Life Sciences
Opinion
Uncertainty and Risk Analysis in Forest Ecosystem Dynamics
Wildfires
Large Wildfire
Fire Behavior
Initial Attack
Fuel Treatment
Wildfire Risk
ISSN:2197-5620, 2095-6355, 2197-5620
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Decision making to mitigate the effects of natural hazards is a complex undertaking fraught with uncertainty. Models to describe risks associated with natural hazards have proliferated in recent years. Concurrently, there is a growing body of work focused on developing best practices for natural hazard modeling and to create structured evaluation criteria for complex environmental models. However, to our knowledge there has been less focus on the conditions where decision makers can confidently rely on results from these models. In this review we propose a preliminary set of conditions necessary for the appropriate application of modeled results to natural hazard decision making and provide relevant examples within US wildfire management programs.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Article-1
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ISSN:2197-5620
2095-6355
2197-5620
DOI:10.1186/s40663-015-0034-7