Beyond GDP: COVID-19’s Effects on Macroeconomic Efficiency and Productivity Dynamics in OECD Countries

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented economic disruptions, raising critical questions about the resilience and adaptability of macroeconomic productivity across countries. This study examines the impact of COVID-19 on macroeconomic efficiency and productivity dynamics in 37 OECD countries u...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Econometrics Vol. 13; no. 3; p. 29
Main Author: Saglam, Umit
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.09.2025
Subjects:
Analysis
COVID-19
COVID-19 pandemic
Data envelopment analysis
Economic aspects
Economic growth
Economic indicators
Efficiency
Epidemics
GDP
Global economy
Gross Domestic Product
Industrial efficiency
Interest rates
Labor market
macroeconomic efficiency
Macroeconomics
Malmquist-Productivity Index (MPI)
Methods
non-oriented-slack-based measure-data envelopment analysis (NO-SBM-DEA)
Pandemics
Productivity
Productivity accounting
Shelter in place
Technological change
Unemployment
United States
Work at home
United States
ISSN:2225-1146, 2225-1146
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Summary:The COVID-19 pandemic triggered unprecedented economic disruptions, raising critical questions about the resilience and adaptability of macroeconomic productivity across countries. This study examines the impact of COVID-19 on macroeconomic efficiency and productivity dynamics in 37 OECD countries using quarterly data from 2018Q1 to 2024Q4. By employing a Slack-Based Measure Data Envelopment Analysis (SBM-DEA) and the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI), we decompose total factor productivity (TFP) into efficiency change (EC) and technological change (TC) across three periods: pre-pandemic, during-pandemic, and post-pandemic. Our framework incorporates both desirable (GDP) and undesirable outputs (inflation, unemployment, housing price inflation, and interest rate distortions), offering a multidimensional view of macroeconomic efficiency. Results show broad but uneven productivity gains, with technological progress proving more resilient than efficiency during the pandemic. Post-COVID recovery trajectories diverged, reflecting differences in structural adaptability and innovation capacity. Regression analysis reveals that stringent lockdowns in 2020 were associated with lower productivity in 2023–2024, while more adaptive policies in 2021 supported long-term technological gains. These findings highlight the importance of aligning crisis response with forward-looking economic strategies and demonstrate the value of DEA-based methods for evaluating macroeconomic performance beyond GDP.
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ISSN:2225-1146
2225-1146
DOI:10.3390/econometrics13030029