Impacts of introducing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 daily growth rate and compliance in the United States

We evaluate the impacts of implementing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in US counties on the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases and compliance, measured through the percentage of devices staying home, and evaluate whether introducing and lifting NPIs protecting selective populat...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Vol. 118; no. 12
Main Authors: Singh, Surya, Shaikh, Mujaheed, Hauck, Katharina, Miraldo, Marisa
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: United States 23.03.2021
Subjects:
Communicable Disease Control - methods
Communicable Disease Control - statistics & numerical data
COVID-19 - economics
COVID-19 - epidemiology
COVID-19 - prevention & control
COVID-19 - transmission
Guideline Adherence - statistics & numerical data
Health Policy - economics
Health Policy - trends
Humans
Pandemics
Physical Distancing
SARS-CoV-2 - isolation & purification
Socioeconomic Factors
United States - epidemiology
United States
COVID-19
compliance
lockdown measures
nonpharmaceutical interventions
public policy
ISSN:1091-6490, 1091-6490
Online Access:Get more information
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Summary:We evaluate the impacts of implementing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in US counties on the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases and compliance, measured through the percentage of devices staying home, and evaluate whether introducing and lifting NPIs protecting selective populations is an effective strategy. We use difference-in-differences methods, leveraging on daily county-level data and exploit the staggered introduction and lifting of policies across counties over time. We also assess heterogenous impacts due to counties' population characteristics, namely ethnicity and household income. Results show that introducing NPIs led to a reduction in cases through the percentage of devices staying home. When counties lifted NPIs, they benefited from reduced mobility outside of the home during the lockdown, but only for a short period. In the long term, counties experienced diminished health and mobility gains accrued from previously implemented policies. Notably, we find heterogenous impacts due to population characteristics implying that measures can mitigate the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 on marginalized populations and find that selectively targeting populations may not be effective.
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ISSN:1091-6490
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2021359118