Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870–—2008

The financial crisis has refocused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the years 1870–2008. Total credit has...

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Veröffentlicht in:	The American economic review Jg. 102; H. 2; S. 1029 - 1061
Hauptverfasser:	Schularick, Moritz, Taylor, Alan M.
Format:	Journal Article
Sprache:	Englisch
Veröffentlicht:	Nashville American Economic Association 01.04.2012 American Economic Assoc
Schlagworte:	1870-2008 19th century 20th century 21st century Alliances Bank assets Bank credit Bank liabilities Bank loans Banking crises Central banks Credit Cross-national analysis Datasets Economic busts Economic crises Economic crisis Economic history Economic indicators Economic policy Economics Financial crisis Financial economics Historical analysis Industrialized nations Macroeconomics Monetary policy Money Money and credit Money supply Policy making Shorter Papers Stock prices Studies
ISSN:	0002-8282, 1944-7981
Online-Zugang:	Volltext
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Zusammenfassung:	The financial crisis has refocused attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for 14 countries over the years 1870–2008. Total credit has increased strongly relative to output and money in the second half of the twentieth century. Monetary policy responses to financial crises have also been more aggressive, but the output costs of crises have remained large. Credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that policymakers ignore credit at their peril. JEL: E32, E44, E52, G01, N10, N20
Bibliographie:	SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-1 content type line 14 ObjectType-Article-2 content type line 23
ISSN:	0002-8282 1944-7981
DOI:	10.1257/aer.102.2.1029