Attribution of summer 2022 extreme wildfire season in Southwest France to anthropogenic climate change

Summer 2022 was exceptionally hot and dry in Europe and especially in Southwest France, where the most important wildfires since 1949 had serious environmental and socio-economic impacts. Here we conduct an impact-oriented climate change attribution study by first investigating which climate indices...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:NPJ climate and atmospheric science Vol. 7; no. 1; pp. 267 - 10
Main Authors: Lanet, Marine, Li, Laurent, Ehret, Antoine, Turquety, Solène, Le Treut, Hervé
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 01.11.2024
Nature Publishing Group
Springer Nature
Nature Portfolio
Subjects:
704/106/694/1108
704/106/694/2739
704/106/694/674
704/106/694/682
704/158/2465
Adaptation
Anthropogenic factors
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climatic conditions
Climatology
Drought
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Economic impact
Emissions
Greenhouse gases
Human influences
Influence
Precipitation
Sciences of the Universe
Seasons
Soil investigations
Soil moisture
Soil temperature
Summer
Vapor pressure
Wildfires
Wind
France
ISSN:2397-3722, 2397-3722
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:Summer 2022 was exceptionally hot and dry in Europe and especially in Southwest France, where the most important wildfires since 1949 had serious environmental and socio-economic impacts. Here we conduct an impact-oriented climate change attribution study by first investigating which climate indices are the most correlated with the burnt area between 2003 and 2022. We find that an index combining soil moisture integrated over 6 months and temperature and vapour pressure deficit integrated over 3 months is correlated with large burnt areas. Using the index developed, we estimate that anthropogenic climate change made climate conditions propitious for wildfire development, such as the ones of July 2022, two times more likely, with a return period of 13 years in the current climate. Our study raises the question of the sustainability of the Landes Forest and stresses the urgent need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.
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ISSN:2397-3722
2397-3722
DOI:10.1038/s41612-024-00821-z