Identification of water quality management policy of watershed system with multiple uncertain interactions using a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming approach

In this study, a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming (MRPP) method is proposed for supporting water quality management under multiple uncertainties. The MRPP method can handle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-random-boundary intervals, probability distr...

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Vydáno v:Environmental science and pollution research international Ročník 24; číslo 17; s. 14980 - 15000
Hlavní autoři: Liu, Jing, Li, Yongping, Huang, Guohe, Fu, Haiyan, Zhang, Junlong, Cheng, Guanhui
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.06.2017
Springer Nature B.V
Témata:
Aquatic Pollution
Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution
Biochemical oxygen demand
Chemical industry
Chemical plants
Decision making
Discharge
Earth and Environmental Science
Ecotoxicology
Environment
Environmental Chemistry
Environmental Health
Environmental management
Environmental policy
Environmental science
environmental sustainability
issues and policy
Models, Theoretical
nitrogen content
Objective function
Oxygen demand
Phosphorus
Plants (botany)
Probabilistic inference
Probabilistic methods
probability distribution
Quality management
Research Article
Risk
Risk aversion
Statistical analysis
Uncertainty
Waste Water Technology
Water
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
Water Quality
Water quality management
Water shortages
Water Supply
Watersheds
Risk
Multiple interactions
Multiple uncertainties
Water quality management
Optimization
ISSN:0944-1344, 1614-7499, 1614-7499
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Shrnutí:In this study, a multi-level-factorial risk-inference-based possibilistic-probabilistic programming (MRPP) method is proposed for supporting water quality management under multiple uncertainties. The MRPP method can handle uncertainties expressed as fuzzy-random-boundary intervals, probability distributions, and interval numbers, and analyze the effects of uncertainties as well as their interactions on modeling outputs. It is applied to plan water quality management in the Xiangxihe watershed. Results reveal that a lower probability of satisfying the objective function ( θ ) as well as a higher probability of violating environmental constraints ( q i ) would correspond to a higher system benefit with an increased risk of violating system feasibility. Chemical plants are the major contributors to biological oxygen demand (BOD) and total phosphorus (TP) discharges; total nitrogen (TN) would be mainly discharged by crop farming. It is also discovered that optimistic decision makers should pay more attention to the interactions between chemical plant and water supply, while decision makers who possess a risk-averse attitude would focus on the interactive effect of q i and benefit of water supply. The findings can help enhance the model’s applicability and identify a suitable water quality management policy for environmental sustainability according to the practical situations.
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ISSN:0944-1344
1614-7499
1614-7499
DOI:10.1007/s11356-017-9106-2