Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries

Drawing on past pandemics, scholars have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about fertility decline. Evidence from actual birth data has so far been scarce. This brief report uses data on vital statistics from a selection of high-income countries, including the United States. The pandem...

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Vydáno v:Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS Ročník 118; číslo 36
Hlavní autoři: Aassve, Arnstein, Cavalli, Nicolò, Mencarini, Letizia, Plach, Samuel, Sanders, Seth
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: 07.09.2021
ISSN:1091-6490, 1091-6490
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Shrnutí:Drawing on past pandemics, scholars have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about fertility decline. Evidence from actual birth data has so far been scarce. This brief report uses data on vital statistics from a selection of high-income countries, including the United States. The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in crude birth rates beyond that predicted by past trends in 7 out of the 22 countries considered, with particularly strong declines in southern Europe: Italy (-9.1%), Spain (-8.4%), and Portugal (-6.6%). Substantial heterogeneities are, however, observed.Drawing on past pandemics, scholars have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about fertility decline. Evidence from actual birth data has so far been scarce. This brief report uses data on vital statistics from a selection of high-income countries, including the United States. The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in crude birth rates beyond that predicted by past trends in 7 out of the 22 countries considered, with particularly strong declines in southern Europe: Italy (-9.1%), Spain (-8.4%), and Portugal (-6.6%). Substantial heterogeneities are, however, observed.
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ISSN:1091-6490
1091-6490
DOI:10.1073/pnas.2105709118