Serum CC chemokine ligand-18 predicts lung disease worsening in systemic sclerosis

Elevated serum CC chemokine ligand (CCL)18 reflects lung fibrosis activity in systemic sclerosis (SSc) and could be an early marker of lung function worsening. Therefore, we sought to evaluate whether serum CCL18 levels at baseline could predict worsening of lung disease in SSc. In this prospective...

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Published in:The European respiratory journal Vol. 38; no. 6; p. 1355
Main Authors: Tiev, K P, Hua-Huy, T, Kettaneh, A, Gain, M, Duong-Quy, S, Tolédano, C, Cabane, J, Dinh-Xuan, A T
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: England 01.12.2011
Subjects:
Adult
Aged
Antibodies, Antinuclear - blood
Autoantibodies - blood
Biomarkers - blood
Chemokines, CC - blood
Disease Progression
DNA Topoisomerases, Type I - immunology
Female
Humans
Longitudinal Studies
Lung Diseases - blood
Lung Diseases - physiopathology
Male
Middle Aged
Prognosis
Prospective Studies
Respiratory Function Tests
ROC Curve
Scleroderma, Systemic - blood
Scleroderma, Systemic - physiopathology
ISSN:1399-3003, 1399-3003
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Summary:Elevated serum CC chemokine ligand (CCL)18 reflects lung fibrosis activity in systemic sclerosis (SSc) and could be an early marker of lung function worsening. Therefore, we sought to evaluate whether serum CCL18 levels at baseline could predict worsening of lung disease in SSc. In this prospective study, 83 SSc patients were analysed longitudinally over a 4-yr observation period for the risk of occurrence of combined deleterious events, defined as a 10% decrease from baseline of total lung capacity or forced vital capacity % predicted, or death, according to serum CCL18 at inclusion. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed for prediction of events during the first year after inclusion. The best cut-off level of serum CCL18 for prediction of a combined event within the follow-up period was 187 ng · mL(-1), with 53% sensitivity and 96% specificity (area under the ROC curve 0.86; p < 0.001). After a mean ± SD follow-up of 33.7 ± 10.8 months, a higher rate of disease progression occurred in the group with serum CCL18 levels >187 ng · mL(-1). The adjusted hazard ratio was 5.36 (95% CI 2.44-11.75; p < 0.001). In summary, serum CCL18 is an accurate predictive biomarker for the identification of patients with a higher risk of subsequent scleroderma lung disease worsening.
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ISSN:1399-3003
1399-3003
DOI:10.1183/09031936.00004711