value of updating ensemble streamflow prediction in reservoir operations

This study proposes a new monthly ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting system that can update the ESP in the middle of a month to reflect the meteorological and hydrological variations during that month. The reservoir operating policies derived from a sampling stochastic dynamic programm...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Hydrological processes Vol. 24; no. 20; pp. 2888 - 2899
Main Authors: Eum, Hyung-Il, Kim, Young-Oh
Format: Journal Article
Language:English
Published: Chichester, UK John Wiley & Sons, Ltd 30.09.2010
Wiley
Subjects:
Accuracy
carbon sequestration
Copyrights
dynamic models
Dynamical systems
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
ensemble streamflow prediction
Exact sciences and technology
forecast accuracy
Freshwater
Geum
Hydrology
Hydrology. Hydrogeology
Mathematical models
prediction
reservoir operations
Reservoirs
River basins
Sampling
sampling stochastic dynamic programming
stream flow
water reservoirs
Water resources
watersheds
South Korea
Far East
Asia
Korea
rivers
models
water policy
ensemble streamflow prediction
sampling
runoff
reservoirs
accuracy
digital simulation
sampling stochastic dynamic programming
water storage
stochastic models
reservoir operations
water resource management
prediction
forecast accuracy
streamflow
ISSN:0885-6087, 1099-1085, 1099-1085
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:This study proposes a new monthly ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting system that can update the ESP in the middle of a month to reflect the meteorological and hydrological variations during that month. The reservoir operating policies derived from a sampling stochastic dynamic programming model using ESP scenarios updated three times a month were applied to the Geum River basin to measure the value of updated ESP for 21 years with 100 initial storage combinations. The results clearly demonstrate that updating the ESP scenario improves the accuracy of the forecasts and consequently their operational benefit. This study also proves that the accuracy of the ESP scenario, particularly when high flows occur, has a considerable effect on the reservoir operations. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bibliography:http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7702
Sustainable Water Resources Research Center of 21st Century Frontier Research Program - No. 1-6-2
Engineering Research Institute of Seoul National University
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ark:/67375/WNG-NDDFSVMJ-P
ArticleID:HYP7702
Ministry of Education & Human Resources Development
ObjectType-Article-1
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
ObjectType-Feature-2
content type line 23
ISSN:0885-6087
1099-1085
1099-1085
DOI:10.1002/hyp.7702