A multi-criteria, long-term energy planning optimisation model with integrated on-grid and off-grid electrification – The case of Uganda

•Most sub-Saharan African countries have low and unequal access to electricity.•Multi-objective optimisation model integrates grid and off-grid electrification.•Solar energy is the cost-minimal strategy to minimise electrification inequality.•Off-grid electrification is a crucial component of all op...

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Vydáno v:Applied energy Ročník 243; s. 288 - 312
Hlavní autoři: Trotter, Philipp A., Cooper, Nathanial J., Wilson, Peter R.
Médium: Journal Article
Jazyk:angličtina
Vydáno: Elsevier Ltd 01.06.2019
Témata:
Generation expansion problem (GEP)
Long-term energy planning
Multi-objective mixed integer linear programming
On-grid versus off-grid electrification
Solar Concentrated Power
Sub-Saharan Africa
On-grid versus off-grid electrification
Multi-objective mixed integer linear programming
Generation expansion problem (GEP)
Long-term energy planning
Solar Concentrated Power
Sub-Saharan Africa
ISSN:0306-2619, 1872-9118
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Abstract •Most sub-Saharan African countries have low and unequal access to electricity.•Multi-objective optimisation model integrates grid and off-grid electrification.•Solar energy is the cost-minimal strategy to minimise electrification inequality.•Off-grid electrification is a crucial component of all optimal solutions in Uganda.•Uganda’s current official expansion plan is infeasible and would be sub-optimal. While electricity access is lowest in developing countries, the academic literature on generation expansion planning (GEP) has been informed almost exclusively by challenges in industrialised countries. This paper presents the first multi-objective, long-term energy planning optimisation model tailored towards national power systems with little existing power infrastructure. It determines the location, type, capacity and timing of power system infrastructure additions. Specifically, three novel generalisations of standard generation planning are introduced: (1) an expansion of the demand constraints to allow for industrial and household electrification rates below 100%, (2) a minimisation of sub-national energy access inequality in conjunction with minimising system costs considering environmental constraints, and (3) an integration of distribution infrastructure, explicitly including both on-grid and off-grid electrification. Using a specifically designed solution algorithm based on the ε-constraint method, the model was successfully applied to the previously unexplored Ugandan national power system case. The results suggest that while it is cost-optimal to maintain highly unequal sub-national access patterns to meet Uganda’s official 80% electrification target in 2040, equal access rates across all districts can be achieved by increasing discounted system cost by only 3%. High optimal shares of locationally flexible on-grid and off-grid solar energy enable cheap sub-national shifts of generation capapcity. This paper strongly challenges the Ugandan government’s nuclear energy and largely grid-based electrification expansion plans. Instead, it calls for solar concentrated power as a baseload option in the future and a focus on off-grid electrification which the model selects for the majority of household connections in 2040, even in a high-demand scenario.
AbstractList •Most sub-Saharan African countries have low and unequal access to electricity.•Multi-objective optimisation model integrates grid and off-grid electrification.•Solar energy is the cost-minimal strategy to minimise electrification inequality.•Off-grid electrification is a crucial component of all optimal solutions in Uganda.•Uganda’s current official expansion plan is infeasible and would be sub-optimal. While electricity access is lowest in developing countries, the academic literature on generation expansion planning (GEP) has been informed almost exclusively by challenges in industrialised countries. This paper presents the first multi-objective, long-term energy planning optimisation model tailored towards national power systems with little existing power infrastructure. It determines the location, type, capacity and timing of power system infrastructure additions. Specifically, three novel generalisations of standard generation planning are introduced: (1) an expansion of the demand constraints to allow for industrial and household electrification rates below 100%, (2) a minimisation of sub-national energy access inequality in conjunction with minimising system costs considering environmental constraints, and (3) an integration of distribution infrastructure, explicitly including both on-grid and off-grid electrification. Using a specifically designed solution algorithm based on the ε-constraint method, the model was successfully applied to the previously unexplored Ugandan national power system case. The results suggest that while it is cost-optimal to maintain highly unequal sub-national access patterns to meet Uganda’s official 80% electrification target in 2040, equal access rates across all districts can be achieved by increasing discounted system cost by only 3%. High optimal shares of locationally flexible on-grid and off-grid solar energy enable cheap sub-national shifts of generation capapcity. This paper strongly challenges the Ugandan government’s nuclear energy and largely grid-based electrification expansion plans. Instead, it calls for solar concentrated power as a baseload option in the future and a focus on off-grid electrification which the model selects for the majority of household connections in 2040, even in a high-demand scenario.
Author Cooper, Nathanial J.
Wilson, Peter R.
Trotter, Philipp A.
Author_xml – sequence: 1
  givenname: Philipp A.
  surname: Trotter
  fullname: Trotter, Philipp A.
  email: philipp.trotter@smithschool.ox.ac.uk
  organization: Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK
– sequence: 2
  givenname: Nathanial J.
  surname: Cooper
  fullname: Cooper, Nathanial J.
  organization: Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, Exhibition Road, SW7 2AZ, UK
– sequence: 3
  givenname: Peter R.
  surname: Wilson
  fullname: Wilson, Peter R.
  organization: Department of Electronic and Electrical Engineering, University of Bath, Claverton Down, Bath BA2 7AY, UK
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Keywords On-grid versus off-grid electrification
Multi-objective mixed integer linear programming
Generation expansion problem (GEP)
Long-term energy planning
Solar Concentrated Power
Sub-Saharan Africa
Language English
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Snippet •Most sub-Saharan African countries have low and unequal access to electricity.•Multi-objective optimisation model integrates grid and off-grid...
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SubjectTerms Generation expansion problem (GEP)
Long-term energy planning
Multi-objective mixed integer linear programming
On-grid versus off-grid electrification
Solar Concentrated Power
Sub-Saharan Africa
Title A multi-criteria, long-term energy planning optimisation model with integrated on-grid and off-grid electrification – The case of Uganda
URI https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.03.178
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